CIA Office Memorandum: 'Flying Saucers' (15 March 1949)
This two-page CIA Office of Scientific Intelligence memorandum, dated 15 March 1949, is addressed to Dr. Machle from Dr. Stone and concerns the subject of 'Flying Saucers.' The author reviews existing documents on the phenomenon and argues that several considerations were omitted from the prior survey. He suggests many objects may simply be free meteorological sounding balloons, and argues that if genuine 'flying saucers' existed it would be extremely unlikely for them to appear over the U.S.: domestic developments would be coordinated with the USAF or commercial designers, foreign aircraft would not be tested at such range from home areas, and guided aircraft at ranges of several thousand miles were beyond any known capability. He questions the psychological probability that objects seen briefly against a 'zero' background would be reported as circular or oval, and highlights a curious seasonal ('time distribution') pattern in the number of sightings, asking whether 'midsummer madness' or asteroid prominence played a role. The document is hosted in the CIA's online reading room.
Description
A U.S. Government office memorandum dated 15 March 1949 from Dr. Stone to Dr. Machle of the CIA Office of Scientific Intelligence (OSI), offering critical commentary on an existing survey of 'flying saucer' reports. The memo raises alternative explanations and analytical questions regarding the sightings.
Claims
Many of the reported objects may be free meteorological sounding balloons, a possibility the surveyed documents did not consider.
60%If a genuine 'flying saucer' were involved, it would be extremely unlikely to be found over the U.S. because domestic developments would be coordinated with USAF or commercial designers, foreign aircraft would not be tested so far from home, and guided aircraft at ranges of several thousand miles exceed all known capabilities.
55%The observations show a curious seasonal time distribution, prompting the question of whether 'midsummer madness' or seasonal asteroid prominence is involved.
55%Many reported flying saucer objects may in fact be free meteorological sounding balloons.
50%It is extremely unlikely genuine flying saucers would be found over the U.S., since U.S. developments would be coordinated with the USAF, foreign aircraft would not be tested at such range, and long-range guided aircraft were beyond any known capability.
50%The number of sightings shows a curious seasonal time distribution, raising the question of 'midsummer madness' or asteroid prominence.
50%Objects seen briefly against a 'zero' background are psychologically likely to be reported as circular or oval.
50%
Events
Mar 14, 1949
OSI memorandum on Flying Saucers
Internal CIA Office of Scientific Intelligence memo critiquing a survey of flying saucer reports.
Mar 14, 1949
Flying Saucers memorandum written
Dr. Stone of OSI sends a critique of a flying saucer survey to Dr. Machle.
Dates mentioned
Keywords
Entities
Extracted text (OCR)
caieishbbatiaiciadeael Office Memorandiune + UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT | OLY TO: “Dr. Machle, OSI. _ - ‘_ -pATE;. 15 Hareb 1949 |; a) we as : oS od SUBJECT: Flying Saucers > — 1 A rapid. perusal-of your docunents leaves one confused end Snclineé to supineness. wn 2,___The following considerations seem not to have oven included _ oo in the survey: - Se ‘ a. Mo suggestion is noted that there is a possibility) : ; that meny-of the objects nay de 'freo meteorological sounding a | Dalloons se . : b. If-atene "flying saucer" is to ve involved, At is \ extrenely_unlixely that they be found over the U. S. decauses . a F (1) U.S. -developnents would be closely coordinated — 4 with USAF or comercial designers. : (2) Foreign aircraft development would hardly be _ 3 tested at such 2 range from hone areas, even if fuel could si 7 ne — “ . ? ; (3) Guided aircraft at a range of several thousand 2 niles are deyond eny known capabilities, inchiding ours. 3 co. What-is the-psychological provability that any ovject 4 geen briefly against "zero" background willbe circular, or oval, j fn appearencet = a ” 3 a. Eas eny one commented on the curious tine distribution 4 : of the observations? Note Rbart below? _. j “3 é * q e 30 1 s 8 } No. of 257 eo 4 Sigatingssg ® ‘, " 5 15 § : y : 3 10 Ff f re won! Po ‘4 . “Raha page oe * 7. 3 5 . : ea: Sa Tae 4 ee ee anna _ — So ; . _ 4 tt ee asa Ost Mov Deo pg Si bittahtbe this U Minne ib aedot td tema Kad USER LTRS Wo TY ate \ an baY sae Sb dahalld ptpats allenic estloedh feeb hd Soledad Sasbde oS —_——> “Dr. Machle, OSI... DATE: 15 Harch 1949 rxe] FROM ( "Dr. Stoae, ost (| Burk) \ SUDJECT: Flying Seucers Bi A rapid perusal of your docunents leaves one confused end bs} jrelined to supineness. 2, The following considerations seen not to have oeen included in the survey: a. No suggestion is noted that there is a possibility that many of the objects may de Nfreot netooralogical sounding Dallooas. . >. If atene "flying saucer™ is to be involved, it is extremely unlikely that they ve found over tha U. S. secause: with USAF or Co=sercial designers. (2) Poreiga aircrast development would hardly be sted et sucs 2 range from hore areas, even if fuel could... te be suvolied——---—-—_ (3) Guided aircraft at a range of several thousand - miles pre besond-eny Known capabdilities, including oars. Cc. What-is_the-psychological probability thet any ooject geen triefly egainst Yzero" background will be circular, or oval, in appearence? = a, _ Hagpeny~one commented.on the curious tine éistribution -.. (1) U.S. developnents would be closely coordinated ~~~. ~, wn bas of the observations? Note @bart below: | i . 30 Ff a No. of 25+ —— Sightingssg - * 15 } Ree. c Te) Mer Apr May Jun Yal Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jpg Is _there_any midsummer modness involved? Are asteroids proainent in that season? Ete., etc. —. eed nl
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