Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of UAP Reports)

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SPECIAL REPORT N0.14

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(ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OB1ECTS)

PROJECT NO. 10073

5 MAY 1955

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AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER
WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE
OHIO

Copy No.

35

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PROJECT BLUE BOOK

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SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14

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(ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS)

PROJECT NO. 10073

5 MAY 1955

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FOR OffIC!Al USt ONlY
(AFR 190-16)

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AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE GENTER
WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE

o:mo

No copyright materiel ls contained In this publication,

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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SUMMARY.
INTRODUCTION
ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA

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REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM

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Questionnaire .
Coding System and Work Sheet
Identification of Working Papers.
Evaluation of Individual Reports

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ANALYSIS OF THE DATA.
Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics
Graphical Presentation .
Advanced Study of the Data
Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer
Statistical Chi Square Test
The "Flying Saucer" Model

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CONCLUSIONS

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APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE
DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS

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APPENDIX B.

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WORKING PAPER FORMS
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Figure l

Frequency of Sightings by Year for Object, Unit, and All Sightings

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Figure 2

Distribution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and All Sightings for All Years

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Figure 3

Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years With Comparisons
of Each Year for Each Evaluation Group •

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Figure 4

Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years and Each Year

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Figure 5

Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation Within Months for All Years

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Figure 6

Distribution of Object Sightings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluations for
All Years and Each Year •

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Frequency of Object Sightings and Unknown Object Evaluations by
Months, 1947-1952.

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Distribution of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With
Evaluation Distributions for Each Group .

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Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliability
Groups for All Years and Each Year .

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Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, Segregated
by Military and Civilian Observers, With Evaluation Distribution
for Each Segregation

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Figure 11 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Color Group •

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Figure 12 Distribution of Object Sightings by Number of Objects Seen per Sighting
With Evaluation Distribution for Each Group

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Figure 13 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation
Distribution for Each Duration Group .

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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)
Page
Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight Duration
Groups for All Years

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Figure 15 Distribution of Object Sightings by Shape of Object(s) Reported With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Shape Group ,

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Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With
Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group .

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Figure 17 Distribution of All Sightings by Observer Location for All Years and Each Year

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Figure 18 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Color, 1947-1952

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Figure 19 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Number of Objects
per Sighting, 1947-1952

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Figure 20 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Speed, 1947-1952

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Figure 21 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Duration, 1947-1952

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Figure 22 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Shape, 1947-1952

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Figure 23 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Light Brightness, 1947-1952

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Figure 24 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Astronomical
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Astronomical.

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Figure 25 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Aircraft
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Aircraft

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Figure 26 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Balloon
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Balloon,

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Figure 27 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Insufficient
Information Versus Total Object Sightings Less Insufficient Information

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Figure 28 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Other
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Other

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Figure 29 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Unknown
Versus Total Object Sightings Less Unknown

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Figure 30 Characteristics Profiles of Object Sightings by Total Sample, Known Evaluations,
and Individual Known Evaluations, With Unknown Evaluations Superimposed ,

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Figure 31

Frequency of Object, Unit, and All Sightings Within the U. S., 1947-1952, by
Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude

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Figure 32 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for the Twelve Regional Areas of
the U. S., With the Strategic Areas Located

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Figure 33 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central East Region

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Figure 34 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central Midwest Region

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Figure 35 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
Central Farwest Region

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Figure 36 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South Midwest Region .

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Figure 37 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South West Region

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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)

Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the
South Farwest Region .

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Figure 39 Diagram of a Celestial Sphere.

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Figure 40 Frequency of Object Sightings by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals
of 10 Degrees of Angle.

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Figure 41 Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Time, Intervals of One Hour

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Table

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Object Sightings

Table

II Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color

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Table

III Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number

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Table

IV Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape

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Table

V Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Duration of Observation

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Table

VI Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed

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Table VII Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Light Brightness

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Table VIII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color

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Table

IX Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number.

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Table

X Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape

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Table

XI Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of
Duration of Ob~ervation

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Table XII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed

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Table XIII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Light Brightness.

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SUMMARY
Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly termed "flying
saucers" or "flying discs") have been received by the U.S. Air Force
since mid-1947 from' many and diverse sources. Although there was no
evidence that the ·unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted
a threat to the security of the U.S., the Air Force determined that all
rep,orts of unidentified aerial objects should be fovestigated and evaluated
to d,etermine if "flying saucers". represented technological developments
not known to this country.
In order to discover any pertinent trend or pattern inherent in the
data, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, appropriate
methods of reducing these data from reports of unidentified aerial objects
to a form amenable to scientific' appraisal were employed. In general, the
original data upon which this study was based consisted of impressions and
interpretations of apparently unexplainable events, and seldom contained
reliable measurements of physical attributes. This subjectivity of the data
presented a 'major limitation to the drawing of significant conclusions, but
did not invalidate the application of scientific methods bf study.
The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unidentified aerial
objects were reduced to IBM punched-card abstracts of the data by means
of logically developed forms and standardized evaluation procedures.
Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data
for statistical treatment, consisted of an appraisal of the reports and· the
subsequent categorization of the object or objects described in each report.
A detailed description of this phase of the study stresses the careful
attempt to maintain complete objectivity and consistency.
Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived from the original
reports of sightings consisted of (I) a systematic attempt to ferret out any
distinguishing characteristics _inherent in the data of any of their segments,
(2) a concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an attempt
to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa.:.
tions of technological' developments not known to this country.
The first step in the 'analysis of the data revealed the existence of
certain apparent similarities between cases of objects definitely identified
.i.nd those not identified. Statistical methods of testing when applied indicated
a low probability that these apparent similarities were significant. An
attempt to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represeri'ted
observations of technological developments not known to this country necessitated a thorough re-examination and re-evaluation of the cases of objects not
originally identified; this led to the conclusion that this probability was very
small.
The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports
of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide the
study group with a complete set of files, the informatio~ cut-off date was
established as of the end of 1952. It will accordingly be noted that the
statistics contained in all charts and tables in this report are terminated

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with the year 1952.

In these charts, 3201 cases have been used.

As the study progressed, a constant program was maintained for
the purpose of making comparisons between the current cases received
after I January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done
in order that any change or significant trend which might arise from
current developments could be incorporated in the summary of this report.
The 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of
increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. They also.show
decreasing percentages in categories where there was insufficient information and those where the phenomena could not be explained. This trend had
been:. anticipated in the light of improved reporting and investigating proceduJ;"es.
Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these,
425 were produced in 1953 and 429 in 195'!. These 1953 and 1954 individual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the same basis as were
those received before the end of 1952. The results are as follows:
Balloons

- 16%

Aircraft

- 20%

Astronomical

- 25%

Other

- 13%
1 7%

Insufficient Info
Unknown

- 9%

As the study of the current cases progressed, it became increasingly
obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further improved,
the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient information and
those remaining unexplained would be greatly reduced. The key to a higher
percentage of solutions appeared to be in rapid "on the spot" investigations
by trained personnel. On the basis of this, a revised program was established by AF Reg. 200-2 Subject: "Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting"
(Short Title: UFOB) dated 12 August 1954.
This new program, which had begun to show marked results before
January 1955, provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service'
Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations.
This squadron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive
"on the spot" within a very short time after a report is received. After
treatment by the 4602d AISS, all information is supplied to the Air Technical
Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative program has resulted, since 1 January 1955, in reducing the insufficient information cases
to 7o/o and the unknown cases to 3%, of the totals.
The period l January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for 131 unidentified
aerial object reports received. Evaluation percentages of these are as follows:

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Balloons

- 26%

Aircraft

- 21%

Astronomical

- 23%

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Other

20%

Insufficient Info -

7%

Unknown

3%

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All available data were included in this study which was prepared by
a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this
study it is believed that all the unidentified aerial objects could have been
explained if more complete observational data had been available. Insofar
as the reported aerial objects which still remain unexplained are concerned,
there exists little information other than the impressions and interpretations
of their observers. As these impressions and interpretations have been
replaced by the use of improved methods of investigation and reporting, and
,by scientific analysis, the number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly
towards the vanishing point.
Therefore, on the b_asis of this evaluation of the information, it is
considered to be highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects
examined in this study represent observations of technological developments
outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge. It is emphasized
that there has been a complete lack of any valid evidence of physical 'matter
in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object.

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INTRODUCTION

In June, 1947, Kenneth Arnold, a Boise, Idaho, businessman and
private pilot, publicly reported the now-famous sighting of a chainlike
formation of disc-shaped objects near Mount Rainier, Washington. Resulting newspaper publicity of this incident caught the public interest, and,
shortly thereafter, a rash of reports of unidentified aerial objects spawned
the term "flying saucers". During the years since 1947, many reports of
unidentified aerial objects have been received by the Air Force from many
and diverse sources.
The unfortunate term "flying saucer", or "flying disc", because of
its widespread and indiscriminate use, requires definition. Many definitions have been offered, one of the best being that originated by Dr. J.
Allen Hynek, Director of the Emerson McMillin Observatory of The Ohio
State University, who has taken a scientific interest in_the problem of
unidentified aerial objects since 1949. Dr. Hynek' s definition of the term
is "any aerial phenomenon or sighting that remains unexplained to the
viewer at least long enough for him to write a report about it 11 ( 1). Dr. Hynek,
elaborating on his definition, says, "Each flying saucer, so defined, has
associated with it a probable lifetime. It wanders in the field of public inspection like an electron in a field of ions, until I captured' by an explanation which puts an end to its existence as a I flying saucer' 11 ( 1).
This definition would be applicable to any and all of the sightings
which remained unidentified throughout this study. However, the term
"flying saucers" shall be used hereafter in this report to mean a novel,
airborne phenomenon, a manifestation that is not a part of or readily explainable by the fund of scientific knowledge known to be possessed by the
Free World. This would include such items as natural phenomena that are
not yet completely understood, psychological phenomena, or intruder aircraft of a type that may be possessed by some source in large enough
numbers so that more than one independent mission may have been flown
and reported. Thus, these phenomena are of the type which should have
been observed and reported more than once.
Since 1947, public interest in the subject of unidentified aerial objects
fluctuated more or less within reasonable limits until the summer of 1952,
when the frequency of reports of sightings reached a peak, possibly stimulated by several articles on the subject in leading popular magazines.
Early in 1952, the Air Force's cumulative study and analysis of
reported sightings indicated that the majority of reports could be accounted
for as misinterpretations of known objects ( such as meteors, balloons, or
aircraft), a few as the result of mild hysteria, and a very few as the result
of unfamiliar meteorological phenomena and light aberrations. However,
(1) Hynek, J. A.• "Unusual Aerial Phenomena"• Journal of the Optical Society of America. 43 (4).
pp 311-314, April, 1953.

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a significant number of fairly complete reports by reliable observers remained unexplained. Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted_ a 1>hysical threat to the security of the U. S., in
March, 1952, the Air Force decided that all reports of unidentified
aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated to determine if "flying
saucers" represented technological developments not known to this country.
Originally, the problem involved the preparation and analysis of about
1,300 reports accumulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the end of
March, 1952. During the course of the work, the number of reports submitted for analysis and evaluation more than tripled, the result of the unprecedented increase in observations during 1952. Accordingly, this study
is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a preliminary statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports.
This study was undertaken primarily to categorize the available
reports of sightings and to determine the probability that any of the reports
of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers".
With full cognizance of the quality of the data available for study, yet with
an awareness of the proportions this subject has assumed at times in the
public mind, this work was undertaken with all the seriousness accorded
to a straightforward scientific investigation. In order to establish the
probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented
observations of "flying saucers", it was necessary to make an attempt to
answer the question "What is a 'flying saucer'?". However, it must be
emphasized that this was only incidental to the primary purpose of the
study, the determination of the probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers", as
defined on Page 1.
The basic technique for this study consisted of reducing the available
data to a form suitable for mechanical manipulation, a prerequisite for the
application of preliminary statistical methods .. One of International
Business Machine Corporation's systems was chosen as the best available
mechanical equipment.
The reduction of data contained in sighting reports into a form suitable for transfer to IBM punched cards was extremely difficult and time
consuming.
For this study a panel of consultants was formed, consisting of both
experts within and outside A TIC. During the course of the work, guidance
and advice were received from the panel. The professional experience
available from the panel covered major scientific fields and numerous
specialized fields.
All records and working papers of this study have been carefully
preserved in an orderly fashion suitable for ready reference. These

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records include condensations of all individual sighting reports, and the
IBM cards used in various phases of the study.

ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DA TA

Reports of sightings were received by the U. S. Air Force from a
representative cross section of the population of the U. S., and varied
widely in completeness and quality. Included were reports from reputable
scientists, housewives, farmers, students, and technically trained members of the Armed Forces. Reports varied in length from a few sentences
stating that a "flying saucer" had been sighted, to those containing thousands of words, including description, speculation, and advice on how to
handle the "problem of the I flying saucers 1 " . Some reports were of high
quality, conservative, and as complete as the observer could make them;
a few originated from people confined to mental institutions. A critical
examination of the reports revealed, however, that a high percentage of
them was submitted by serious people, mystified by what they had seen and
motivated by patriotic responsibility.
Three principal sources of reports were noted in the preliminary
review of the data. The bulk of the data arrived at A TIC through regular
military channels, from June, 1947, until the middle of 1952.
A second type of data consisted of letters reporting sightings sent by
civilian observers directly to A TIC. Most of these direct communications
were dated subsequent to April 30, 1952, and are believed to be the result
of a suggestion by a popular magazine that future reports be directed to the
Air Technical Intelligence Center. As could be expected, a large number
of letters was received following this publicity.
A third type of data was that contained in questionnaire forms completed by the observer himself. A questionnaire form, developed during
the course of this study, was mailed by A TIC to a selected group of writers
of direct letters with the request that the form be completed and returned.
Approximately 1,000 responses were received by ATIC.
In general, the data were subjective, consisting of qualified estimates
of physical characteristics rather than of precise measurements. Furthermore, most of the reports were not reduced to written form immediately.
The time between sighting and report varied from one day to several years.
Both of these factors introduced an element of doubt concerning the validity
o,f the original data, and increased its subjectivity. This was intensified by
the recognized inability of the average individual to estimate speeds, distances, and sizes of objects in the air with any degree of accuracy. In
spite of these limitations, methods of statistical analysis of such reports m
sufficiently large groups are valid. The danger lies in the possibility of
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forgetting the subjectivity of the data at the time that conclusions are
drawn from the analysis. It must be emphasized, again and again, that any
conclusions contained in this report are based NOT on facts, but on what
many observers thought and estimated the true facts to be.
Altogether, the data for this study consisted of approximately 4, 000
reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. The majority were :received through military channels or in the form of observer-completed
questionnaires; a few were accepted in the form of direct letters from un-questionably reliable sources. Sightings made between June, 1947, and
December, 1952, were considered for this study. Sightings alleged to have
occurred prior to 1947 were not considered, since they were not reported
to official sources until after public interest in "flying saucers" had been
stimulated by the popular press.

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The plan for reduction of the data to usable form consisted of a program of development comprising four major steps: ( 1) a systematic listing
of the factors necessary to evaluate the observer and his report, and to
identify the unknown object observed; (2) a standard scheme for the transfer of data to a mechanized computation system; (3) an orderly means of
relating the original data to_ all subsequent forms; and ( 4} a consistent procedure for the identification of the phenomenon described by the original
data.

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Questionnaire

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REDUCTION OF DA TA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM

As received by the Air Technical Intelligence Center, the sighting
reports were not in a form suitable for even a quasi-scientific study. A
preliminary review of the data indicated the need for standardized interrogation procedures and supplemental forms for the reduction of currently
held and subsequently acquired data to a form amenable to scientific
appraisal.

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The first reports received by A TIC varied widely in completeness
and quality. Air Force Letter 200-5(2} and Air Force Form 112( 1) were
attempts to fix responsibility for and improve the quality of the reports of
sightings. To coordinate past efforts and to provide standardization for the
(1) A modified Air Force Form 112 lists pertinent questions to be answered in regard to an unidentified-object
sighting.
(2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibility with the Air Force for the investigation, reporting, and
analysis of unidentified aerial objects. This letter is dated 29 April 1952.

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future, it was imperative to develop a questionnaire form listing the factors
necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification
of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire
should be designed to serve as an interrogator's guide, and as a form for
the observer himself to complete when personal interrogation was not possible or practicable.
Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain
questions pertaining to all technical details considered to be essential for
the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a maximum of information from the average individual who had made a sighting in the past or
would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these ~iscrete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be required, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated.
Also, a narrative description might allow subtle questions to be answered
concerning the observer's ability, such as indirect questions that would
reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general mental attitude.
As a whole, then, the information contained in a questionnaire should make
possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the
observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identification of what was reported by the observer as unidentified.
During the course of this project, three questionnaire forms were
developed, each intended to be an improved revision of the one preceding.
The improvements were suggested and confirmed by members of the panel
of consultants connected with this project.
The original form was evolved by the panel of consultants as their
first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduction of reports to discrete data, and was immediately subjected to extensive review and revision by the panel. The revised ( second) form was
subjected to a trial test before adoption. A TIC sent a copy to observers
reporting sightings, with the request that the form be completed and returned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and August,
1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this
analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final
form of the questionnaire - the U. S. Air Force Technical Information
Sheet - was evolved. Copies of the three forms of the questionnaire, in
the order of their development, are shown as Exhibits BI, B2, and B3 in
Appendix B.
In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting
reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed
and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each form in
relation to past data, an important factor in the improvement of the quality
and completeness of the later reports included in this study.

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Coding System and Work Sheet

The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory
in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punchedcard system for analysis of data forced the adoption of a master coding
plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of a~ exact
nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer
form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary.
The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
preli~inary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for translation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, every conceivable factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each
factor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy
of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit IH, Appendix B.
To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an intermediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was
developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the system of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly
transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction
with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the
original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A
sample is included as Exhibit BS, Appendix B.
After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the mechanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the
IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more
than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination
of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a combination of stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern.
All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES
and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B.
However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be critical, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and
re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has
been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.

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Identification of Working Papers

The actual reduction of data to IBM punched-card form presented a
problem of mass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that
an orderly system of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the
WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was imperative, a scheme of SERIAL
NUMBERS was developed to answer this need.
The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by
the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The number of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over 20.
Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect transcription of data, duplication of transcription, or misplacement of intermediate forms. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings
of the same object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit
serial number (major), followed by a two-digit subserial number (minor),
was adequate to fulfill these requirements.
To expedite handling of the data, temporary serial numbers were
assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenomenon had been
placed i11:, a category of identification. The use of temporary serial numbers permitted the consolidation of duplicate reports from apparently
diverse sources, such as a teletype message and an Air Force Form 112.
However, this consolidation was made ONLY when it could be proved conclusively that the sources of the two documents were one and the same.
Factors of the observer's location, date and time of observation, description of the phenomenon, and finally, the name of the observer were considered. In this manner, the assignment of major serial and minor subserial numbers in continuous series was made only to the reports accepted
for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent
unique and unduplicated instances of sightings.
In the establishment of the serial-number system, it was necessary
to define certain terms,' so that a standard interpretation could be achieved.
The terms and corresponding definitions were:
OBSERVER - Any witness reporting to a proper authority that
he had seen unidentified aerial objects.
SIGHTING

The report or group of reports of the same
observed phenomenon that remained unidentified to the observer or observers, at least
until reported.

7

SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of a single
report from ( 1) one OBSERVER with no knowledge
of additional OBSERVERS of the same phenomenon, or (2) a group of witnesses of the same
phenomenon, each cognizant of the others. The
witness who made the report is called a SINGLE
OBSERVER.
MULTIPLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of
several reports from OBSERVERS of the same
phenomenon who were cognizant of each other.
The witnesses who made reports are called
MULTIPLE OBSERVERS.
ALL SIGHTINGS - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of one
report for each OBSERVER, including both
SINGLE and MULTIPLE OBSERVERS. (2) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representing the report from each OBSERVER in other words, the representation of each report
accepted for the statistical study.
UNIT SIGHTINGS - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of one
report for each SIGHTING, including all the
reports of SINGLE OBSERVATIONS and the one
most representative report from each MULTIPLE
OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work
sheet, and IBM card representing the report for
each SIGHTING accepted for the statistical study.
A major serial number (four digits) was assigned to each sighting,
segregating the year of occurrence by selection of limits for each year, as
follows:
0001 to 0500 reserved for 1947
0501 to 1000 reserved for 1948
1001 to 1500 reserved for 1949
150lto2000 reserved for 1950
2001 to 2500 reserved for 1951
2501 to4900 reserved for 1952
While this scheme would serve to identify any individual sighting, identification of each report and its subsequent forms was necessary. The minor
subserial numbers ( two digits) fulfiiled this requirement. For all SINGLE
OBSERVATIONS, a major serial number followed by two (2) zeros, for
example, 2759. 00, was sufficient identification. For MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS, the major serial number followed by a series of two-digit numbers ranging from 00 to 99 was used to identify the individual reports. In
general, the most complete report from the most reliable observer of that
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MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with the . 00 subserial number.
As an example, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting
reports would have the following serial numbers:
1132. 00 representing the best report and observer
1132.01 representing an additional observer
1132. 02 representing an additional observer
1132. 03 representing an additional observer
1132. 04 representing an additional observer
1132. 05 representing an additional observer
During the course of the transcription of the data to machine card
form, it became obvious that certain reports could have been independent
observations of the same phenomenon. So, if the presentation of an
analysis based on one report for each sighting was valid ( the concept of
UNIT SIGHTINGS}, a presentation of an analysis based on one report for
each phenomenon should be valid also. Further, the examination of data
relating to the actual number of phenomena was considered to be the proper
basis for assessing the probability of technological developments outside
the range of present-day scientific knowledge. Therefore, a designation of
OBJECT SIGHTINGS was established, with the following definition:
OBJECT SIGHTING - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of
one report for each phenomenon. (2) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representing a report for each phenomenon
accepted for the statistical study.
In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS
refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assumed
number of phenomena.
It must be recognized that the process of identifying OBJECT
SIGHTINGS was deductive, while that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was definitive.
A conservative approach was adopted in the determination of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and time of observations, location
of observers, duration of observations, and range, bearing, track direction, and identification of the phenomena. Any error of selection of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS will tend to be in the direction of reducing the actual number of
phenomena observed ( several instances of UNIT SIGHTINGS that might be
one OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusive
enough to justify consolidation of the reports).
Following the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, a series of
serial numbers, called the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was established
to facilitate any future study of a specific object sighting. Each reported
sighting that relates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the same incident
serial number, a four-digit code paralleling the major serial number
series.

9

For machine manipulation, it was desirable to be able to select the
sample of cards (all reports, all sightings, or all phenomena) to be included in a particular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column of the IBM
card, and the correlated working papers,· the code for this function was
developed. Multiple punching eliminated the need to use several columns
for discrete expression of the variations. Selection of the proper number
in this column thus permitted selection of the desired sample of cards.

Evaluation of Individual Reports

Evaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the
preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would
have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study. A method
of evaluation was, therefore, determined simultaneously with the development of the questionnaire, the coding system, and the work sheet. It is
emphasized that all phases of evaluation, even including the tedious preparation of the original data for statistical treatment, were entrusted only
to selected, specially qualified scientists and engineers.
Evaluation consisted of a standardized procedure to be followed for:
( 1) the deduction of discrete facts from data which depended on human impressions rather than scientific measurements, (2) the rating of the observer and his report as determined from available information, and ( 3) the
determination of the probable identification of the phenomenon observed.
Categories of identification, established upon the basis of previous experience, were as follows:
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light phenomenon
Birds
Clouds, dust, etc.
Insufficient information
Psychological manifestations
Unknown
Other
The first step in evaluation, the deduction of discrete facts from
subjective data, required certain calculations based on the information
available in the sighting report. An example was the finding of the approximate angular velocity and acceleration of the object or objects sighted.
Care was taken during this phase of the work to insure against the deduction of discrete facts not warranted by the original data. Thus, even
though there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of

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physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this
was not assumed to be prima facie evidence that "flying saucers" did not
exist.
In those cases in which an attempt to reduce the information to a
factual level failed completely, the report was eliminated from further consideration, and thus not included in the statistical analysis. About 800
reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of
these reports were rejected because they were extremely nebulous; the
rest were rejected because they contained highly conflicting statements.
The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his
report, logically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable
form. Ratings were assigned on the basis of the following factors of information, considered in relation to one another:
( 1)

The experience of the observer, deduced from his
occupation, age, and training;

( 2)

The consistency among the separate portions of the
description of the sighting;

(3)

The general quality and completeness of the report;

(4)

Consideration of the observer's fact-reporting ability
and attitude, as disclosed by his manner of describing
the sighting.

In cases in which insufficient information was available to make a judgment
of the observer or report, none was made, but the report was accepted for
the statistical study.
The third step in the process of evaluation, the attempted identification of the object or objects sighted, was done twice, first by the individual
who made the transcription of the data (the preliminary identification), and
later (the final identification} by a conference of four persons, two representatives from ATIC and two from the panel of consultants. Although
representatives of A TIC participated in making the final identifications, it
must be emphasized that any previous identification of a sighting made by
A TIC was not introduced or referred to in any way.
In the coding system, the choices provided for final identifications
were based on A TIC' s previous experience in analysis of the data. They
had found that the majority of sightings could be classified as misinterpretations of common objects or natural phenomena. Accordingly, categories
for objects most frequently present in the air were provided. Balloons,
aircraft, astronomical bodies ( such as meteors), birds, and clouds or dust
were recognized as major categories. The less frequent, but common
objects, such as kites, fireworks, flares, rockets, contrails, and

11

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meteorological phenomena like small tornadoes, were collected into a
category called OTHER. A separate category for the uncommon natural
phenomena associated with light reflections or refractions, such as mirages,
sun dogs, inversion-layer images, and distortions caused by airborne ic.e,
was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON. Categories for
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not be fitted into the
preceding identifications. An explanation of their use follows:
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION - This identification category
was assigned to a report when, upon final consideration, there was some essential item of
information missing, or there was enough
doubt abou._t what data were available to disallow
• identification as a common object or some
natural phenomenon. It is emphasized that this
category of identification was not used as a
convenient way to dispose of what might be
called "poor unknowns", but as a category for
reports that, perhaps, could have been one of
several known objects or natural phenomena.
No reports identified as INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION contain authenticated facts or impressions
concerning the sighting that would prevent its
being identified as a known object or phenomenon;
PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - This identification
category was assigned to a report when,
although it was well established that the observer had seen something, it was also
obvious that the description of the sighting
had been overdrawn. Religious fanaticism, a
desire for publicity, or an over-active imagination were the most common mental aberrations causing this type of report;
UNKNOWN - This designation in the identification code was
assigned to those reports of sightings wherein
the description of the object and its maneuvers
could not be fitted to the pattern of any known
object or phenomenon.
For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications were
recognized, the KNOWNS (including all identification categories except the
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS.
All possible identifications provided in the code system, except
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned according to two degrees of certainty, designated "Certain" and "Doubtful".

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A "Certain" identification indicated a minimum amount of doubt regarding
the validity of the evaluation. By "rule-of-thumb" reasoning, the probability of the identification being correct was better than 95 per cent. A
"Doubtful'' identification indicated that the choice was less positive, but
that there was a better than even chance of being correct.
It is emphasized again that, as was tr.ue for other phases of evaluation, preliminary and final identification was entrusted only to scientists
and engineers who, in addition to their broad scientific background, had
received instruction, where necessary, in specialized subjects. The panel
of consultants provided background information for this instruction. Many
of the cases representing unusual features or maneuvers were submitted to
and discussed with various members of the panel of consultants prior to the
final identification.
Consistency in the application of the knowledge necessary for making
identifications was maintained by frequent collaboration among the personnel involved, and systematic spot checks of the work. In addition to the
general fund of knowledge required to identify satisfactorily a reported
unidentified aerial object, an attempt was made to correlate specific data
such as flight plans of aircraft, records of balloon releases, weather conditions, and an astronomical almanac with the reported sighting.
The procedure followed in making final identifications deserves explanation because of the importance assumed by the identification as a basis
for statistical treatment. As was mentioned, a conference of four qualified
persons, two from A TIC and two from the panel of consultants, decided
upon the final identification for each sighting report. This work was done
at A TIC, periodically, as reports became ready.
During an identification conference, each sighting report was first
studied, from the original data, by one person. If that person arrived at a
decision, it was checked against the preliminary identification; if the two
identifications were the same, the report was appropriately marked and
considered finished. If the two identifications did not agree, the report
was considered later by everyone participating in the conference until a
group decision could be made.

If an evaluator was unable to categorize the report as one of the
common objects or as a natural phenomenon, and his opinion was that the
sighting should be recorded as UNKNOWN, a group decision was also required on that report before it was considered finished. A group decision
was necessary on all reports finally recorded as UNKNOWN, regardless of
what the preliminary identification had been. In cases where a group
decision was not made within a reasonable time, the report was put aside
and later submitted to certain members of the panel of consultants for their
op1n1ons. If, after this, disagreement continued to exist, the report of the
sighting was identified as UNKNOWN.

13

Upon completion of final identifications, all data were transferred to
IBM cards, preparatory to analysis.

ANALYSIS OF THE DA TA

Broadly stated, the problem at this point consisted of the judicious
application of scientific met~ods of categorizing and analyzing the subjective data in reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. It was
recognized that an approach to this problem could best be made by a systematic sorting and tabulation program to give frequency and percentage
distributions of the important characteristics of sightings. A suggestion
that an attempt be made to anticipate all questions that might be asked in
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to provide answers,
was rejected. The systematic approach also made it possible to develop
a detailed reference manual of the attributes of the sightings included in
this study.
Thus, at the beginning of the analysis, a detailed plan was developed
for sorting, counting, and tabulating the information from the punched-card
abstracts of reports of sightings. It was believed at the time, and later
substantiated, that the results of the program for sorting and tabulating
would serve as a, guide for the more sophisticated treatment involving
statistical methods.
Also, it was anticipated that any patterns or trends that might be
found could be subjected to concentrated study in the hope of discovering
significant information relating to the characteristics of "flying saucers".
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve as certain of the
criteria of validity for any concepts (models) developed in the attempt to
discover a class of "flying saucers".
The three parts of this study ( 1) the sorting and tabulation program,
(2) the advanced study of the results of that program, and (3) the investigation of the possibility of conceiving a model of a "flying saucer" from
descriptions reported, are discussed in sections entitled "Frequency and
Percentage Distributions by Characteristics", "Advanced Study of the Data",
and "The I Flying Saucer' Model".

Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics

The original conception of this study assumed the availability of
sufficient data to describe adequately the physical appearance, maneuver
characteristics, range, direction, and probable path of the object or
objects observed. However, familiarity with the data, acquired during the
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translation and transcription from reports to punched cards, indicated that
there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield
meaningful correlation studies. Either the original data were too subjective, or the incompleteness of the original reports-wo1J:_ld seriously reduce
the sample of a specific variable.
Preliminary tabulations of various sortings substantiated the impossibility of deriving statistical results from certain variables, such as
movement of the observer during the sighting, sound, shape parameter,
size, angular velocity and acceleration, appearance and disappearance
bearing, initial and final elevation, altitude, and orientation of the object.
The statistically usable variables presented in this study include the date,
time, location, duration, reliability, and method of observation of the
sighting, and the physical attributes of number, color, speed, shape, light
brightness, and identification of the objects sighted.
The presentation of frequency and percentage distributions of any of
the variables must be interpreted in the light of the sample of incidents
represented. For example, the analysis of the reported colors of the
objects sighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to misrepresentation of the distribution of the reported color of the objects, because of the
multiplicity of reports on some of the phenomena. On the other hand, the
percentage distribution of the light brightness reported by each observer
is more likely to be correct than a distribution based on one report for
each phenomenon. To assure that the most nearly correct presentation
was made, and to avoid the possibility· of failure to uncover any pattern or
trend inherent in the data, the variables were studied on five different
bases or samples. These samples, and their numerical relation to each
other, were as follows:
ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports)
UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer
UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers
OBJECT SIGHTINGS

The preliminary tabulations indicated that the samples based on UNIT
SIGHTINGS, single observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers,
would not add materially to this study. Accordingly, although the frequency distributions were recorded and are available for study, they are
not presented in this report.
The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS ( referring to all
observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as
Tables Al through A240. A critical study of these tabulations reveals that
there is no apparent change in the distribution of any variable from one
basis to another, and that no marked patterns or trends exist in any sample.

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3,201 cards
2, 554 cards
2, 232 cards
322 cards
2, 199 cards

Graphical Presentation
Graphical representation of the important information contained in
the tables is presented in Figures l through 38. These figures present the
distributions of the important variables only by the total nu.mber of cases
in each identification category, since no significant differences were found
between the distributions of "Certain'' and "Doubtful" identifications of
objects with respect to the variables. A chronological study of these
figures will afford a broad picture of the tabulated information, without the
necessity of a detailed study of the tables.
A critical examination of the figures will show that no trends, patterns,
or correlations are to be found, with the exception of Figures 18 through 30.
The apparent similarity of the distributions shown by these mirror graphs,
Figures 18 through 23, was tested by statistical methods which showed that
there was a low probability- that the distributions of the KNOWNS, and
UNKNOWNS by these characteristics were the same. These tests and their
interpretation are discussed in the following section. For purposes of this
study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 32 through 38, and Tables
A223 through A240, Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concentration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpretation of the tables or remaining charts was deemed necessary.

Advanced Study of the Data

It was recognized that the lack of any patterns or trends, as shown by
the tabulations and graphs, provided an insecure basis for drawing definite
conclusions. Accordingly, shortly before the sorting and tabulation program was concluded, a program of study of the data was developed to
utilize statistical and other mathematical methods, which could lead to a
more concrete interpretation of the problem.

Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer
The first thing that was done was to calculate the angle of elevation of
the sun above the horizon and its bearing from true north as seen by the
observer at the time of each sighting. With this information, it could then
be determined whether there was a possibility that the reported object
could have been illuminated by light from the sun. In addition, it could be
determined whether an object could be a mock sun ( sun dog) or whether
there was a possibility of specular reflection from an aircraft at the position of the object, which would give the appearance of a "flying disc".
A program of computation was set up and carried out to obtain the
angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each sighting. All information needed for this calculation was available on the deck of IBM cards.

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,1952,
1501=
68.3%

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Object sightings
2199 =100%

All sightings
3201 = 100%

FIGURE I FREQUENCY OF SIGHTINGS BY YEAR FOR OBJECT,
UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS
A-7479

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Unit sightings
2554 =100%

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474 =21.5%

Object sightings
2199=100 %

All sightings
3201=100%

Unit sightings
2554= 100%

FIGURE 2 DISTRIBUTION OF EVALUATIONS OF OBJECT,
UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS
A-7480

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Unknown
434=19.7°1.

Astronomical
479 =21.8 %

1952

Aircraft

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FIGURE 3

DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR ALL YEARS WITH COMPARISONS OF
EACH YEAR FOR EACH EVALUATION GROUP
A•7411

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19

No. of object sightings
100

+­

2199

79

143

186

169

121

1501

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

c

~
~

ro
0

Q,J

a.

0I

C\\.\.:::<::<>0)J
- ••

L>,,),,),,),,\.'\'\1

1947

l'\;\'\\:\,'\'\'1

1948

I\'\»),),).);!

1949

N>,'\',,'\'\>)j

1950

I\Y\'\\.'\'\"l
1951

RL~

I0

1952

FIGURE 4 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR
A-7 4 82

---------------------No. of object sightings

70

I F+--1 ;..I

55

11 I I 11

83

11 I I I 11

127

129

11 I I I I I I I I 11

183

638

407

166

125

106

11 I I I I I I I I 11 11 I I 11 I I I I 11 11 I I 11 I I I I II

105

11 I I 11 1100

90

"'Cl

·=.c 80

80

cn 7 0

70

+-

Cl

+­

u
cu

:.0
60
0

60

"'

.c

c0 50

50

~ 40

40

-

30

30

u'­ 20

20

~

"'

0

LLJ
0

+­

c

cu
cu

a.

10

10
0 I l>.':u>l

I\»'\'I

l>,V0J

l\'\:0::1

~

~

Jon

Feb

Mor

Apr

Moy

June

l'\'001 J:00-:\'I
July

Aug

L),'\).)I

Sept

~ J l'\'\)-'::J l\»>.J
Oct

Nov

I0

Dec

FIGURE 5 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION WITHIN MONTHS FOR ALL YEARS
A-7413

20

30

0

10

30

20

10

Astronomical
All years

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1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
195 2

I

I

I
I

I

I

I
I

I
I.

I

Aircraft

I

All years

I

I

I

1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
195 2

I

I
I

I

I

I

I

I
I

I

Balloons
All years

I
I

1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
195 2

I
I

I
I

I

I

I

I

I
I

I

lnsuf. info.

I

All years

I

1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
195 2

I

I
I
I
I

Unknown

I

I

All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
1952

I
I
I
I

I

Other
All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
195 I
1952

30

20

10

Certain

0

Per Cent

10

20

30

Doubtful

FfGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY CERTAIN AND
DOUBTFUL EVALUATIONS FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR
A•7414

22

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

---------------------5001
400

.,
"'
"'

sot

~

50t

r::: X r-MK X\ -ISO

1so

C

:;:
.t::.

....

II)

u

~

0

0

"'
c,a

.....

40t

I

IX XTTIX X

30t

VI

I<. X rTT1 X X-130

-f40

.0

E
::,

z

20

20

10

10

01

I

J F M A M J

J

I

JX

A

s O N 01 J

1947

X a::,::,,,l::±-¥ tf::::3>H::::t:><I

:-

l'Y:I

Cl

s O N O IJ F M A M J J A s O N O IJ
1948
1949

F M A M J

J

A

:-1

7 1'¥""-Y£1

l

r I I I I I I I I I 110

s O N DI J F M A M J J A s O N DI J F M A M J J A s O N D
1950
1951
1952

F M A M J

J

A

FIGURE 7 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS AND UNKNOWN OBJECT EVALUATIONS BY MONTHS,
1947-1952
C-7485

Astro-

n Astronomical

Unknown

=22.8

I 71=33.3%
I

\

I

'\

I

\

I

I

\

\

I

\

\\ I/

I

I

\ /Excellent

lnsuf. info.
9=4.2 o/o

\
I

I

I

I
I

I

''
''
''
'

2199=

100 o/o

I

''

I

I

I

I

I

''
\

'

I

/I

Doubtful
/

/

/

'

,'
/
/

I

' I

I
I
I

I

I
I

'

I
I
'

I

Good

''

''

\

Unknown Astr
nomic
188 =
-2

24.8 o/o

I

I

croft

lnsuf. info.
27=3.6%

FIGURE 8 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING
RELIABILITY GROUPS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS
FOR EACH GROUP
A-748S

24

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

---------------------No. of object sightings
2199

100

79

186

143

90 t--

' ' ',

80 ,-

-

,, ,,
I'

'

-- --

,,

''

I

100

,
,,,

',,

----

,,

---

- 90
- 80

',

',

I

-

cu

u... 50 -

I

----

- 10

',

/

I

60 ,-

C

N)
(JI

1501

Good
I

~

121
I

Excellent

70

169

_, ,

---

''

I

-----

_v

',

- 60

',

- 50

cu

a. 40 t--

---

Doubtful

' ''

I

3011-

I
I

I

10i""
0I

'

- 30

'

''

I

----- -

20It-

- 40

r,

I
I

''

Poor

I
I

''

I

I

''

- 10

I

I

I

All years

1947

- 20

' ',

1948

1949

1950

FIGURE 9 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS AMONG THE FOUR
GROUPS FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR

1951

SIGHTING

1952

- 0

RELIABILITY
A-74 87

(>'

•-:-..v
0~

0~
,~

t/-"'

~
~

6 -- 2's- -

,

~

~0·

~ ·,$'

~(:-

t- (:-0
.;/' <c~(:-;_o~~~
CJ~ ~00~-

~
so--

1Slbb \o

1

1 ■111111

2s

s'o

•
1 s -,ob \b
1

21s

s'o

T's

~ ~~~
~ ~

,db\6

21s

s'o

1s

100

45r-l---Per Cent_ _ / _ \ ~ - - - - - - - - / ~ - - - - - - - - / _ \ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _/_
4Qt--1------------J-l-----------/---\---4""'-------..---I-I------------J--

3 St--1------------,--1-----------,---1-"'

,

__

-

3 Qt--1-----------'

~
~

20t--1-------- 1---1--

1--------- 1--

I 5t-- \--------I---- I -

1---------1-

1--------1--

1----------1-

- - - - - 1--1

~

1--,-----1 - -

uCcu 2 S t - - - 1 - - - - - _ : __ __ 1 - - - 1 - - Civilian

IOI
51

01

I

I Civilian

e [
t-----

0 Military
J
I
Excellent

I Military
1------

I

I
Good

Civilian

------1--

W Military

!

Ci villa n

1-----1 - -

i--------1

!
Doubtful

f--•----

':j Military I
Poor

FIGURE 10 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY GROUPS. SEGREGATED BY
MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OBSERVERS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH
A-1411
SEGREGATtON

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

IQO,r,:::+=+=11=+:+:::i:+r-r.r-r..r:,-0.;:r+:r+.:r~i-T~_f1_J7...,. 7'_J-rr.._
7...,.

90

r...,.r-1-1rr-"'[_"I."I.T..LL~n, IO 0

.._ri.....rrwwT---1-T---1-T
....

90

Unknown

80
70
60 +­

+­

c

c

u

u

cu

cu

50 "cu

L..

cu

a.

a.

40
30

20
10

\

I

I

\
\

I

\

I

I

\

'
White

Metallic

23.5 %

17.7%

i,

Not
stated OrangE Red
12.3% 10.0% 8.1%

Other

28.4%

FIGURE II DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED COLORS
OF OBJECT(S) WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH
COLOR GROUP
A•7419

I

I
I

+-r+-r

_,_T_._,-

27

~,....,....,....,....r-T""S....,...,-100

1008060-

I
I

>-+-i---+-+.......,._+-+---<__. -

80

~~~~~~~~~ - 6 0
11 or more objects ~~-0~·~~'Y,f
66=3.0%

3-10 objects
255= 11.6 %

0. 40-

::::,
0

--

"C

~

(!)

cu

20-

-

·.t::.
31';

-20 <!>

0

C

C
.t::.

(I)

0-

C

cu 100-

~~
u 0
0

~

(\J (0

a.. 80-

(I)

cu O')
:0 (X)

(.)

cu

0
C

II

O')

I object
1636= 74.4%

0

II

o

(0

-

-

~

u
cu
.
°EN

v

C

~,...,..T""T""'S,..........~ -

IO O cu

(.)
~

;c:...~-<":-<":v:vvccc;

cu

,,....,,...."",,v'X,Y~'C◊O: - 8 0 Q..

~

cu
.0

E
::::,

60-

z

1----------i-

60

4020-

100- .................- ........o.
t-+-+-+-+-+-+-,r-+-t-+t Unknown

-20

::::,

o_

e 80-~~V~v"~V'~-~.,.._.,..ic:J',.~ Others
(!)

lnsuf. info.

c

-

Balloon

-c 40cu

Aircraft

:C 6031';

(.)
~

cu 20-

a..

Astronomical

FIGURE 12 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS SEEN PER SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH GROUP
A-74 90

28

I
I
I
I
I

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

I
I
I

I

----------------------

-

--~---------------------------------------------

1J ! J..111~~
mm !!!!!!m
eo-1 ~':.~.~. / / ' ~111111-1-----------,1111 1111111
1111111111111~_~1---------,-11111 I111111
1

1

1

1

lnsuf. info.

100---~-----~~~~~

9 0-1

70

.

~

= ~

No t

~ov;ra~.mi ~ ~ / ; , •

61
::~ ;~;.in
40

30

/~~"'TTT"l7"7"''7"7"'7"?'"7~~~

-

~~~:.-

~r::i IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIl~_~~mffll 11111111111111

/~~-IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIR===:=filllllllllllll lllll

✓~:::~I
11111111111111111111111~-====:~BI
1111111111
5

-~:~30·:::

: ~: :~e?:: :::::-111111111111111 ~;:==;=91111111111111
-,,~-1,1111111,11m1111111
O-D~;~t!;:n

0

IO

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Evaluations in Per Cent
FIGURE 13 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION OF SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION
DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH DURATION GROUP
A- 7491

No. of object sightings
70

100

55

83

127

12.9
-

63_8

183

407

L25

-

-1.66

106

LOS

I

90I·

90
Not
statec

en
Cl
C

.

:;: 80 -

/
/

.c.

Cl

·(/)
-

u

,,

70

-

Cl)

'B

0 60

I

\'

'\ '

I

1:0 50I u

•
I I)

,.,

/

I

I

I

''

I

'\

-

-

''

''

I
II

'

I

..

-

I"

-w
0

30I

10-1v

CV

U 20 r

sec

Cl)

10
I

-

,;

,;'

-

'
I\

~·

,;'

V

\

.,. ,,·

\

'\'\•

5 sec
ond
less

/

'

I'

...

I' '

V

I

I

''

I

\

..'

~

/

'

,,.

...

/

I'

,-,

- II

. 20

-,,,·
.,,.

.......

,,,,

.

30

f I
I
I

..

-,

. 40

I I
' I

..

,-,
'

5 0 'Cl)
a.

I
I
I

'\

..

/

(.)

I
I

\

-

r,

-

,,·
I"

I'

'

,,,
/

~

\

I

I'

- ·,
\
'

'

'­

a.

;

1·,

Cl)

\

\
\

10

0
Jon

Feb

Mor

Apr

0
May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

C

\

\

I1_-~y
se_e

C

\

\

to
;;; 5min
\

60

I
I

I

~ 40I U)I
0

I

I

I

\

--

;'

70

I
I

'

'

'

o 61sec

II
II

'\\
\

-

. 80

I

\

'

,;

r

I

i

min

.c.

"'

I

,-,

I

''

-"' ....

I
,I

I

I\

6-30

en

0

I

fn;;in -

~

~

100

Dec

FIGURE 14 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY MONTHS AMONG THE EIGHT DURATION
GROUPS FOR ALL YEARS
A-7492

---------------------100-

___

......,..,,,,,,,,,, .......-K\'.\,\.\.\.\.\.\.\l 11 11 I 1111 I P/7?777J1f------txx5o&'x54 I I I I I I 111111 I 11
lnsuf. info
23.5%

90-

Not
stated

---i'·"~::-.1II III II I 1•::====~111I IIIII I III
--------r-f;'~ilIIII
IIIII~
I
I
I
I
IIII
\~~:~11111111111111~:====;::====::-[ 111111
1111•
4\~11111111111111111111111~~::==:=-.IIIIIIIIIII
i. .--.J, .:~: _ _ 111111.1111111.I ~ .11111111 I.I 111111
80-

Other

70-

Flam

60- enticular

C:
QJ

0

50-

~

QJ

(II

Q.

40-

30-

20-

Elliptical

I

\\

~

10-

o_

Shape

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 15 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE OF OBJECT(S) REPORTED WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH SHAPE GROUP
A-7493

100

ioo-r-----------K'Z\:\.~\:i 11111111111 IV/T///1

.KXXXX?t 111 I I 1111111

90-

11111~~~::::::=::::~111111111111

eO-ln;~::~ed' ,/~~

~ : ~I

ffl • ~-u

;:::~:~II I111111111111111 ~t:==:=:;: : : : : ==~t: :=: : =jgm I1111111111111111

~ i ::~ :~i~t / i B II II IIII IIII IIIl~t=:::=:::=t:=:::::::=:::=::::::::~91111111111111111
: ~:~;~~~o :~::;~]! 1111111111~~11111111111
~~~~:-1,111111.-t:::==c::::==:t:::==,_____ffl 1111 l1111111
1

:~

15t

:~::Y

0 ·

10

20

30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 16 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED SPEED OF OBJECT(S) WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH SPEED GROUP
A-7494

100

---------------------No. of all sighting
3201

100-

117

Location
not
stated , ... ...

~ 90-

...

+­

&,
80<11

205

,,,

''

., ,/'

-

164

' ' ',

I

I

~

40-

I

\

I

\

Outdoors

\

-60

,,

c

<11

u

"

.c

,,--

1_-:;.,'

+-

30-

In bldg.

',/
/

''

/

In plane

,.,,.,

'\

\

,

\,,,

-40

,,

~

\

\

/

,.,,

\

\

\

-30
\

\

-20

,.,,,, ,,,-

'

II

10-

.,

11~,"

...... _

I,.

"20o.

,,,, ,,,

~~

''

,
, I,

,,,

-50

'
,,

~ \

//
, ,, ,

~
~
~
~

.--:._,,,,,,

'

+­

-70

I

\

0

-so

I

\

~

(1,1 0

''

I

\

f/)

c,,.._

''

I

70-

+-

'

-100
-90

~

I

\

·-"' 60.c
·-"'
50-

2018

160

I

0::
u,
C

306

' ' , ...

---

--

_, ,

----

........

-10

In car

0

_Q

All years

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

FIGURE 17 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY OBSERVER LOCATION FOR ALL YEARS AND
EACH YEAR
A-74 95

Unknown
Per Cent

Total Less Unknown
Pe-r Cent
I

30

25

20

15

10

5

I

I

I

I

I

I

0

0

5
I

10
I

15
I

20
I

25
I

30
_1

_j

White

Meta II ic

Not stated
Of
~

Orange

Red

Other

FIGURE 18 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY COLOR,1947-1952
A-7496

-~-------------------Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I

Unknown

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

0

0

IO

20

Per Cent
30 40 50 60

70

80

One

Two

c,,

Three
to
ten

(JI

..

Eleven
or
more

■

■

Not stated
■

FIGURE 19 COMPARISON OF KNOWN ANO UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS PER SIGHTING, 1947-1952
A- 7497

Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I

Unknown
Per Cent

40

35

30

25

20

15

IO

5

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

0

0

5

IO

15

20

25

30

35

40

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

Stationary
Less than
100 mph
100 to400
mph

(1,1
0)

-

More than
400mph
Meteor-Ii ke

-

Not stated

FIGURE 20 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SPEED, 1947-1952
A-7491

---------------------30

Total Less Unknown

Unknown

Per Cent

Per Cent

25

20

15

10

5

0

0

5 seconds
or less

t

5

10

15

20

25

30

6-10
seconds
11-30
seconds

"'...a

31-60
seconds
61 seconds
5 minutes
6-30
minutes
More than
30 minutes
Not stated

FIGURE 21 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION, 1947-1952
A-7499

Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15

Unknown
10

5

0

0

5

10

Per Cent
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Elliptical
Rocket
and
aircraft
Meteor or
comet
c,,

a,

U

Lenticular,
conicol or
teardrop
Flame
Other shop,
Not stated

FIGURE 22 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE, 1947-1952
A•7500

---------------------Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I

60
I

50
I

40
I

30
I

20
I

0

0

10
I

-

-/

(1,1
U)

Sunlight on
mirror or
aluminum
Sunlight on
plaster,
stone or soil

IO
I

20
I

Unknown
Per Cent
30
40
I

I

50
I

60
I

I

-

Brighter
than moon

-

~

Like moon

,...
...

..

-

-

Duller
than moon ...

'

Not stated

Fl GURE 23 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LIGHT BRIGHTNESS,
1947-1952
A•7501

Total Less Astronomical
Per Cent
40

30

20

10

Astronomical
Per Cent
0

0

j
January

10

20

30

40

t

February
March
April

..

0

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 24 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
ASTRONOMICAL VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS ASTRONOMICAL
A-7502

---------------------Total Less Aircraft
Per Cent
40

30

20

10

Aircraft
Per Cent
0

0

January

10

20

30

40

t

February
March
April
May
June

~

July
August
September
October
November
December

FIGURE 25

COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
AIRCRAFT VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS AIRCRAFT
A-7503

Balloon
Per Cent

Total Less Balloon
Per Cent

40

30

20

10

0

l

0

January

10

20

30

40

t

February
Morch
April
Moy
June

~

I\)

July
August
September
October
November
December

FIGURE 26

COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED
AS BALLOON VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS BALLOON
A-7 504

---------------------lnsuff icient

Total Less lnsuff icient Information

Information

Per Cent

Per Cent
40

30

20

10

\

I

I

I

0

0

10

20

30

40

j
January
February
March
April
May

•
c,,

June
July
August
September
_ October
November
December

FIGURE 27 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION
A-7505

--/

Total Less Other
Per Cent

40

30

20

10

0

0

January

10

Other
Per Cent
20

30

40

t

February
March
April
May

..

June
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 28

COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
OTHER VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS OTHER
A-7506

---------------------Unknown
Per Cent

Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
40

30

20

10

0

0

j
January

10

20

30

40

t

February
March
April
May
June
~

u,

July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 29 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
UNKNOWN VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS UNKNOWN
A•7507

90
80

-

-

C
Cl>

-co 60
...
~ cu 40
a.

20

\

C
~

C
Cl>

C
~

a.

Cl>

20

-

-

C
Cl>

1/)

Unknown
,a:.._

60

<i ~

40

,

, ''

(.)

- -- !/
,/

C

a§
60

-C (.) 40
Cl>

-

cu
m a.

20
0

._
Cl>

-

.s::.

-(.)
C
Cl>

60

Cl>

a.
20

\

'~

\

~

\ I \\._

;, -~

,..:::..

\

~----

v
J,,

- ,:,,,

'

"-.J.;

[\,..::. / '
f-"a- ii

~

I

'

~

:::.:::.:: ..::::

I

\ / \ -~ l?- ,__ ? /
I

\

\

\

......... ~' _.. '-.;\

I

Unknown
~

/ k: ~ V~~~ I\ j
"t,'

I \

~

/'-.
"N
-' \.,

~

'~

_,_:,,

I\
i.-,
,,

~

✓

.,::..

\

_;~ -✓- ~ -- --

\

l/ ~ "-

¾

-::-,

---

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I

I

,

\

~L

Unknown
~

< ' --

Number ofl

I objects

1/- ~ .:.:_

''

0

M

'

\ I

38

0 ... 40

FIGURE

-

,
\_
I
- ,1/
I'- I
~-,

~-

/ , Vr\ ,/ \b< ~, ✓- ~ r:..:: ,, h.,v y
---~

) ~ -- V-- ~ ,

Unknown

20

0
0

I

V\
('

\Unkn~~ h

3§

C
Cl>

C

~-~~,
"hf/,'
.:.;:; ,._

Cl>

-...... 0

::....

I
I
I

20

C

-- I

....... "'-::

IL ~ -- I "'

3§

...0 (.) 60
<t a.... 40

~

\

60

I ~ "~~ \ I
\

3~

(.)
... 40

0

Unknown

i..:::: ~

r

1/)

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v'
"'

I ~ ~;' ::>< ~

I

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V

I

~~~~be,f~~~~;,•b~
\,~(§;!~~aa:-~~:~-,~!:t;!~~~o~-e\,:~~e~~e~
~-..,~~eb
n~
~,i~o~\o~ w; ~o' ~era,,,, , "- "'(,~~o

I

~ ~ I,,.,.

0

'

Q~

Color

'

I',..

~

-.::: ~

f1/
""' -

'

Shape

Speed

I

Duration

30 CHARACTERISTICS PROFILES OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY
TOTAL SAMPLE, KNOWN EVALUATIONS, AND INDIVIDUAL KNOWN
EVALUATIONS, WITH UNKNOWN EVALUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED
B-7508

46

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I

---------------------65"

40"

~

35"

--.J

30"

KEY: IN EACH SUBDIVISION THE TOP FIGURE
INDICATES THE FREQUENCY OF ALL
SIGHTINGS, THE MIDDLE FIGURE UNIT
SIGHTINGS, ANO THE BOTTOM FIGURE
OBJECT SIGHTINGS

45'

115"

FIGURE 31

FREQUENCY OF OBJECT, UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES 1947-1952, BY SUBDIVISIONS
OF ONE DEGREE OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

1:11'

ll!l"

110"

105°

100"

BS0

90"

95"

BO"

750

65"

111"

CANADA
15"

411"

411"

CENTRAL WEST

59-10°'

~

00

35"

311"

25"
45°

1211"

115"

FIGURE 32

105"

95"

911"

BS"

DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR THE TWELVE REGIONAL
AREAS OF THE UNITED STATES, WITH THE STRATEGIC AREAS LOCATED (STRATEGIC
AREAS WERE DETERMINED OH THE BASIS OF CONCENTRATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS)

65"

611"

---------------------6\0

Balance of Central East
Region
81 object sightings
~

CD
36

FIGURE 33 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL EAST REGION
a- 7511

10/5

43

1010

915

l

~

~

\

;

~
~

\ r J\ L>l\ \
I

1

J

(JI

0

I
l

36

I

1010

FIGURE

Balance of Central

I

Midwest
Region
I
164 object s i g h t i n g s , \

)

V

~,.

\/

\

(

915

34 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL MIDWEST REGION
a-7512

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Farwest Region

FIGURE 35 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS
IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FARWEST REGION
B-7515

I

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51

1010

9\0

36

36

t

I\ ~ 2\F

J

t1

UI
N
e2 object sightings
0

Waco

210 object sightings

ICIO

9\0

8\5

FIGURE 36. COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS
OF THE SOUTH MIDWEST REGION
B-7514

---------------------10/5

1010

9 e object slvhtlnvs

36

Albuquerque

•

(11
(>I
:)

,

1010

FIGURE 37 COMPARISON OF EVAWATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WEST REGION
A-7515

Balance of South
Farwest Region
19 object sightings

FIGURE 38 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN
THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE SOUTH FARWEST REGION
B-7516

54

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This information consisted of:

( 1) Time and date of observation in Greenwich Civil Time
(2)

Latitude and longitude of the observer at the time of
observation.

Figure 39 shows a celestial sphere on which Z represents the observer's zenith, ~ represents the sun, and N represents the north celestial
pole.
Using the date and time of the observation, the longitude and declination (§) of the sun were obtained from an ephemeris of the sun and corrected
for the equation of time. The difference between the longitudes of the sun
and the observer was taken, and called the hour angle (HA on Figure 39).
Then, using the declination of the sun (S), the latitude of the observer
(lat), and the hour angle (HA), the angle (ZS)between the observer's zenith
and the sun can be calculated from the law of cosines of spherical trigonometry. Thus, cos ZS = cos (90 - lat) cos (90 - S) + sin (90 - lat) sin
(90 - S) cos (HA).
Since the angle ZS is measured from the observer's zenith, the angle
of elevation of the sun above the horizon for daytime sightings was found by
taking 90 - ZS. When the sun was below the horizon, the angle of depression of the sun below the horizon was found by taking ZS - 90.
Having found the angle ZS, the bearing of the sun ( angle B} was obtained from the formula:
sin (B)
=
sin(90-S)

sin (HA)
sin (ZS}

All of the above calculations were made with IBM equipment. Sines,
cosines, and their inverses were obtained from a deck of 9,000 IBM cards
on which seven-place Peter 1 s tables of the sines, cosines, and tangents of
angles had been punched for each 0.01 of a degree ·from O to 90 degrees.
Upon completion of these calculations, the cards representing OBJECT
SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of the sine of the bearing angle. This
separated the cards into two groups: ( 1) sightings which occurred between
noon and midnight, for which the sine of the bearing angle was positive; and
(2) sightings between midnight and noon, for which the sine of the bearing
angle was negative. Then each of these groups was sorted into groups for
intervals of 10° in angle of elevation of the sun from -90° to +90°. A count
was made of the number of cards in each group and from this a histogram
was constructed (Figure 40}. The UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS were
then sorted out, counted in the same manner, and a histogram was made
(again see Figure 40).

55

FIGURE 39 DIAGRAM OF A CELESTIAL SPHERE
A· 75 35

56

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~--------------------300
275
250
I

225

I

Sun~t

Cl)

-0

C

I

200

I

I

.s:
0

en
u

175

Cb
150
......
.0

-

125

Cb
.0

100

0

All object sightings ------+--41►

(710

__, "-

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z

Unknown object sightings

I

E

::::,

I
•
Sun,I rise

75

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50

J

25

0

I

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-90

-60

-30

0

+30

+60

+90

+60

+30

0

-30

-60

Angle of Elevation of The Sun
Fl GURE 40 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY ANGLE OF ELEVATION OF THE SUN, INTERVALS
OF 10 DEGREES OF ANGLE
A-7536

-90

The following points should be carefully noted about these histograms:
( 1)

The negligible number of sightings when the sun is within
10° of the zenith and nadir (angle of elevation of the sun =
± 90 °) of the observer is due to the fact that the southernmost latitude of the U. S. is greater than the declination
of the sun at the summer solstice, so that it would be impossible for the sun to reach the zenith or nadir of any
observer in the U. S. (where most of the sightings were
made).

(2)

The time of day at which a particular angle of elevation
of the sun occurs does not remain fixed but varies from
day to day. Consider, for example, the variation in
sunrise and sunset times over the course of a year.

Thus, there are only two inferences to be made from this histogram:
( 1) the high peak of sightings soon after sunset, and (2) the lack of increase
in the UNKNOWNS relative to the KNOWNS near either sunset or sunrise.
This would seem to discount the possibility that atmospheric phenomena
such as mock suns were the primary cause of the unknown reports, since
such phenomena usually occur when the sun is near the horizon.
The Local Sun Time was computed as a step in the calculation of the
angle of elevation of the sun. It is related to the hour angle by the equation:
Local Sun Time (L. S. T.) = HA/15 + 12. 00, where L. S. T. is in hours and
HA in degrees.
The cards were grouped on the basis of L. S. T. in intervals of one
hour, and the number of cards in each interval was counted. Again the
UNKNOWNS were sorted out and similarly treated. Histograms were constructed with the results of these tabulations of OBJECT SIGHTINGS
(Figure 41). Here, again, there is a peak in the early evening hours.
The cards were then broken up into seven groups on the basis of the
angle of elevation of the sun, as follows:
Group 1 - Daylight sightings for which the sun was more than
10° above the horizon.
Group 2 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° above the horizon.
Group 3 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° below the horizon.
Group 4 - Evening sightings for which the sun was between
10° and 40° below the horizon.

58

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---------------------300
275
250

& 225

---en-a, 200
C
+-

+0
a.,

175

-

150 Midnight

·-..0
0

~

0

(JI

CD

~

a.,
..0

E

:,

z

Noon

125

I

100
75r

All object sightings

L

,_

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:Midnight
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Unknown ;.bject sightings ~ ~

50
25
0300

0600

0900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

Loco I Sun Time
FIGURE 41 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LOCAL SUN TIME, INTERVALS OF ONE HOUR
A-7537

Group 5 - Night sightings for which the sun was more than 10°
below the horizon and which were not included in
Group 4.
Group 6 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° below the horizon.
Group 7 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between O0
and 10° above the horizon.
These group numbers were punched on the cards and incorporated
into the coding system. The number of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in each group
for each identification was then tabulated and is given in Table I.

TABLE I

OBJECT SIGHTINGS
Angle of Elevation Group

Identification

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light phenomena
Insufficient information
UNKNOWN
Other

156
52
187
8
72
134
64

17
6
23
2
12
14
8

28
43
49
4
26
25
12

83
236
144
25
76
150
50

40
118
60
7
28
86
36

0
9
5
0
2
6
3

2
6
2
0
0
7
7

Total

673

82

187

764

375

25

24

According to this table, a large majority of the KNOWN OBJECT
SIGHTINGS in Group 1 (343 out of 467) were either aircraft or balloons. In
Groups 4 and 5 combined, a large majority (681 out of 899) were either
balloons, aircraft, or astronomical. Accordingly, a re-evaluation of the
UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the objective of determining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group 1 might possibly be aircraft or
balloons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 might possibly be
balloons, aircraft, or astronomical objects. More will be said of this
project later.

Statistical Chi Square Test
In the meantime, mirror graphs had been constructed from the frequency tabulations which seemed to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six
characteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of

60

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UNKNOWNS in each characteristic group showed the same general trend.
In other words, on the basis of these graphs, it looked as though there was
a good possibility that the UNKNOWNS were no different from the KNOWNS,
at least in the aggregate. It was decided to investigate this by the use of a
statistical procedure called the "Chi Square Test".
The Chi Square Test is a statistical test of the likelihood that two
distributions come from the same population, that is, it gives the probability that there is no difference in the make-up of the two distributions
being measured.
The method is outlined as follows:
( 1) Adjust the distributions by multiplying the KNOWNS in each
characteristic group by the ratio of the total number of
UNKNOWNS to the total number of KNOWNS. (The Chi
Square Test is applicable only to distributions which have
the same total number of elements.)
(2)

Take the difference between the number of UNKNOWNS and
the adjusted number of KNOWNS in each characteristic
group.

(3) Square the remainder from Step 2.
( 4)

Divide the result of Step 3 by the corresponding number of
adjusted KNOWNS.

This is the chi square for the particular group. Summing the individual chi squares over the groups of a characteristic gives the chi square
for that characteristic. This number is then compared with a table of the
distribution of chi square which can be found in many texts on elementary
s tatis tics.

It will be noted that chi square is tabulated in terms of degrees of
freedom which in this case is one less than the number of groups of sightings for each characteristic.
The tabulations of KNOWNS and UNKNOWNS against the six characteristics and the Chi Square Test as it was applied are shown in Tables
II through VII. In each case, the number of degrees of freedom is given,
as is the value of chi squares corresponding to probabilities of 5 per cent
and 1 per cent that two distributions with this number of degrees of freedom
come from the same population. Since the greater the value of chi square
the smaller the probability of homogeneity of two distributions, a calculated
value of chi square greater than either the 5 per cent or 1 per cent values
will indicate a probability less than 5 per cent or 1 per cent, respectively,
that the two distributions are homogeneous. The term homogeneity is used
here to indicate that two distributions could have come from the same
population.

61

TABLE II

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR

x2

Color

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

(K-n)2
K

White
Metallic
Not stated
Orange
Red
Yellow
Green
Blue
Other

405
313
209
172
146
128
130
67
195

100
77
51
42
36
31
32
17
48

112
76
62
49
33
31
14
26
31

1. 44

0. 01
2.37
1. 17
0.25
0
10. 13
4. 76
6.02

Total

1765

434

434

26. 15

Degrees of freedom

8

15.5
20. 1

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TABLE III

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

x2,
(K-n)2
K

1
2
3-10
11 or more
Not stated

1339
159
185
41
41

329
39
46
10
10

297
37
70
25
5

3. 11
o. 10
12. 52
22. 50
2.50

Total

1765

434

434

40.73

Number of
Objects Per
Sighting

Degrees of freedom

4
9.5
13.3

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TABLE IV

Shape

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SHAPE

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS {K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

x2
{K-n}' 2
K

Elliptical
Rocket and aircraft
Meteor or comet
Teardrop, lenticular,
or conical
Flame
Other
Not stated

838
80
55
103

206
20
14
25

195
33
4
22

0.59
8.45
7. 14
0.36

96
193
400

24
47
98

10
54
116

8. 17
1.04
3.30

Total

1765

434

434

29.05

6

Degrees of freedom

5%

12.6
16.8

1%

64

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TABLE V

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION

Duration of
Observation

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

x2
{K-n}' 2
K

5 sec or less
6-10 sec
11-30 sec
31-60 sec
61 sec-5 min
6-30 min
Over 30 min
Not stated

259
92
153
108
269
305
135
444

64
23
38
26
66
75
33
109

27
21
33
42
99
71
37
104

21.39
o. 17
0.66
9.85
16.50
0.21
0.48
0.23

Total

1765

434

434

49.49

Degrees of freedom

7

5%

14. 1
18. 5

1%

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TABLE VI

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

x2

,2

Speed

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Stationary
Less than 100 mph
100 to 400 mph
Over 400 mph
Meteor-like
Not stated

249
154
181
403
83
695

61
38
45
99
20
171

53
26
58
145
16
136

1. 05
3.79
3.76
21. 37
0.80
7. 16

Total

1765

434

434

37. 93

Degrees of freedom

Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)

{K-n)
K

5

5%
1%

11. 1

15. 1

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TABLE VII

CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

Light Brightness

x2

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

(K-n)' 2
K

47
151
76

11
37
19

14
28
16

0.82
2. 19
0.47

Sunlight on mirror
Sunlight on aluminum
Sunlight on plaster,
stone, or soil
Brighter than moon
Like moon or duller
than moon
Not stated

273
68

67
17

61
22

0.55
1. 47

1150

283

293

0.35

Total

1765

434

434

5.85

Degrees of freedom

5

5%
1%

11. 1
15. 1

67

In five of the six cases, the probability is less than 1 per cent that
the distributions are the same. In the sixth case, Light Brightness, the
classifications are too nebulous to be of real value. However, these tests
do not necessarily mean that the UNKNOWNS are primarily "flying saucers"
and not aircraft, balloons, or other known objects or natural phenomena.
The UNKNOWNS might still be unidentified KNOWNS if either of the following cases occurred:
( l}

The characteristics which were observed for the UNKNOWNS
were different from those observed for the KNOWNS because
of the psychological make-up of the observer or because of
atmospheric distortion. This assumes the distribution of
objects in KNOWNS and UNKNOWNS is the same.

(2)

The UNKNOWNS may be known objects in different proportions than the group identified as KNOWNS. (That is, a
greater percentage of the UNKNOWNS could be aircraft
than the percentage of aircraft in the identified KNOWNS.}

The second case is the more probable one. In this connection, it is
interesting to note the factors which contributed to a large chi square
result in the tests made above:
(1)

Color
The major contribution to chi square in color is from the
color green. There is a large excess of green sightings
among the KNOWNS over the UNKNOWNS. Of the 130
known objects in this classification, 98 are astronomical,
and are due mostly to the green fireballs reported from
the Southwest U. S.

(2)

Number
The large chi square is due to a greater proportion of
UNKNOWNS in the multiple object classification. Apparently
these are harder to identify.

(3} Shape
In this case, there is a higher percentage of UNKNOWNS
in the rocket-aircraft-shape classification. These might
be familiar objects for which unusual maneuvers were
reported.
There is a higher percentage of KNOWNS in the flame
and in the meteor- or comet-shape category, which in
both cases appears to result mainly from excesses of
astronomical sightings.

68

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(4) Duration of observation
Here there is an excess of KNOWNS in the less-than5-second group. Again, the majority of KNOWNS in
this group are astronomical. The greater proportion
of UNKNOWNS in the 31- to 60-second and 61-second
to 5-minute groups cannot be explained.
(5) Speed
The major contribution to chi square for this characteristic is due to a large excess of UNKNOWNS in
the over 400-mph class. It can be assumed that some
of the excessive speeds are inaccuracies in estimates
by observers. However, some radar sightings, which
are practically impossible to identify, show objects
with speeds of 1,000 to 2,000 mph and over, and these
reports account for a number of these UNKNOWNS.
(6)

Light brightness
Since this chi square was not significant, it is not
necessary to discuss it here.

An examination of these discrepancies thus brings up a very interesting point. In every case for which there is a significant excess of KNOWNS
over UNKNOWNS, the excess can be attributed to an excess of identifiable
astronomical phenomena. This would seem to lead to the conclusion that
astronomical phenomena are easy to identify and there are very few left in
the UNKNOWNS. Accordingly, the astronomical object sightings were
deleted from the KNOWN object sightings and the Chi Square Test was again
applied. The results are shown in Tables VIII through XIII, where in this
case the KNOWNS do not contain astronomical sightings.
It will be noted that some groups were combined when the adjusted
number of KNOWNS was ten or less, except for the case for which the
number of objects per sighting was the characteristic studied. These were
borderline cases, and no good combination of groups existed.
It is apparent that the deletion of astronomical sightings gives a better
fit, although the decision is not clear cut, since for two cases (light brightness and speed}, the chi square increased. However, it can again be pointed
out that the reporting of these two characteristics is highly subjective and is
open to question. The estimation of speed is especially open to question
because of the impossibility of accurately determining it visually.

69

TABLE VIII

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR

Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)

x2
(K-n}' 2
K

95
101
64
39
31
30
11
10
53

112
76
62
49
33
31
14

3.04
6. 19
0.06
2.56
0. 13
0.03
0.82

26}
31

0.57

434

434

13.40

Color

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS {K}

• White
Metallic
Not stated
Orange
Red
Yellow
Green
Blue
Other

281
298
189
117
92
90
32
29
158

Total

1286

Degrees of freedom

7

5%
1%

14. 1
18. 5

70

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TABLE IX

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER

Number of
Objects Per
Sighting

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

x2
(K-n)' 2
K

1
2
3-10
llormore
Not stated

913
142
168
34
29

308
48
57
11
10

297
37
70
25
5

0.39
2.52
2.96
15.36
2.50

Total

1286

434

434

23.73

Degrees of freedom

4

5%

9.5
13.3

1%

71

TABLE X

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SHAPE

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Elliptical
Rocket or aircraft
Meteor or comet
Flame
Teardrop, lenticular,
or conical
Other
Not stated

632
72
9
47
79

Total

Shape

x2

Number of
UNKNOWNS. ( n)

(K-n)' 2
K

213
24
3
16
27

195
33

1. 52
3.37

22

0.93

151
296

51
100

54
116

1. 76
2.56

1286

434

434

11.46

Degrees of freedom

1~}

1.32

5

5%

11. 1
15. 1

1%

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TABLE XI

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION

Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)

x2,
(K-n} 2
K

Duration of
Observation

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

5 sec or less
6-10 sec
11-30 sec
31-60 sec
61 sec-5 min
6 min-30 min
Over 30 min
Not stated

92
47
118
92
252
259
91
335

31
16
40
31
85
87
31
113

27
21
33
42
99
71
37
104

0.52
1. 56
1. 23
3.90
2. 31
2.94
1. 16
0.72

Total

1286

434

434

14.34

Degrees of freedom

7

5%

14. 1
18.5

1%

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TABLE XII

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

Speed

Nu1nber of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Stationary
Less than 100 mph
100 to 400 mph
Over 400 mph
Meteor-like
Not stated

196
128
156
291
24
491

66
43
53
98
8
166

Total

1286

434

x2

'

Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)

(K-n} 2
K

53
26
58

2.56
6.72
0.47

145}
16
136

28.54

434

43.71

5.42

4

Degrees of freedom

5%
1%

9.5
13. 3

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TABLE XIII

CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

Light Brightness

x2,
(K-n) 2
K

Number of
KNOWNS

Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)

Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)

24
136
63

8
46
21

14}
28
16

1. 19

Sunlight on mirror
Sunlight on aluminum
Sunlight on plaster,
stone, or soil
Brighter than moon
Like moon or duller
than moon
Not stated

143
42

48
15

61
22

3.52
3. 27

878

296

293

0.03

Total

1286

434

434

10.68

Degrees of freedom

2.67

4

5%

9.5
13. 3

1%

75

Another interesting aspect of these new tests is that there are only
two large discrepancies in all of the groups. These are for the 11 or more
groups in the classification by number of objects per sighting and for the
over-400-mph and meteor-like group for the classification by speed. The
first was relatively unchanged by deletion of the astronomical sightings
principally because of the concentration of sightings in the single-object
category. The second was slightly increased by the removal of the astronomical sightings from the meteor-like classification. However, the main
discrepancy, that of the excess of UNKNOWNS in the over-400-mph class,
was little changed.
The results of these tests are inconclusive since they neither confirm
nor deny that the UNKNOWNS are primarily unidentified KNOWNS, although
they do indicate that relatively few of the UNKNOWNS are actually astronomical phenomena.
It was decided that this process would not be carried to its logical
conclusion {that is, the determination of a linear combination of KNOWNS
that would give a negligible chi square when compared with the UNKNOWNS),
since it was felt that the inaccuracies in the reports would give a distorted
and meaningless result.

The "Flying Saucer" Model

The importance of the problem dictated a second approach, should the
statistical results prove inconclusive. It was decided that an attempt
would be made to describe the physical appearance, flight characteristics,
and other attributes {that is, construct a model) of a class or classes of
"flying saucers".
Preparatory to this attempt, a re-evaluation of the UNKNOWNS was
necessary. This re-evaluation was accomplished by a panel composed only
of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS
reports available at ATIC, the panel made a careful study of the reports for
the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and
7 - those .groups for which the sun was either above the horizon or less than
10° in elevation below the horizon.
This study had two purposes. The first was to determine, with
additional information such as the angle of elevation of the sun, how many
of the UNKNOWNS might be ascribed to known phenomena. The second was
to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were described in sufficient detail that
they might be used to construct a model or models of "flying saucers".
It was decided to put any of the UNKNOWNS which might be known
phenomena into a "possible KNOWN" category to denote the slightly lower
confidence level which could be ascribed to these new evaluations. The

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UNKNOWNS with sufficiently detailed description would be called II good
UNKNOWNS", while the remainder would simply be called UNKNOWNS.
One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in
Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 were examined. There were 18 possible aircraft,
20 possible balloons, 7 good UNKNOWNS, 100 UNKNOWNS, and 19 others
which were identified as being possible KNOWNS of various types. It is
interesting to note that two of these were established as mock suns on the
basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with
the direction of the object from the observer. In addition, the UNKNOWNS
in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttime sightings) were scanned
with no attempt at identification, but to find any possible "good UNKNOWNS".
There were five sightings that could be put into this category.
Of the UNKNOWNS, there were approximately 20 sightings that were
observed in such a way that they should have been recognized easily if they
had been familiar objects, that is, there was little possibility that their
shapes, as seen, could have been distorted sufficiently by one cause or
another to render them unrecognizable. There were a very few that would
have been identified as guided missiles or rockets, but that were not so
identified because of the geographical location in which they were seen.
All of the remaining UNKNOWNS were classified as such solely because they were reported to have performed maneuvers that could not be
ascribed to any known objects. In these cases, the shape might have been
unrecognizable also, but it was felt that this was because of distortion and
distance, or because of darkness.
This is a very important point. To put it differently, if these
UNKNOWNS, which represent all but about 40 of the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS,
were reported to have performed maneuvers which could be ascribed to
known phenomena, they would p r o ~ have been identified as KNOWNS.
With the exception of some radar sightings, all of these maneuvers were
observed visually. The possibilities for inaccuracies are great because
of the inability of an observer to estimate visually size, distance, and
speed.
Reports of sightings by radar usually were of high-speed objects,
some at extremely high altitudes. Some were identified as UNKNOWNS
because there was no object to be seen visually at the point indicated by the
radar set. It cannot be said with any assurance what these radar sightings
mean, but the most logical explanation is that they are ground targets reflected by an atmospheric temperature inversion layer. The validity of this
statement cannot be established. It is felt that radar sightings in this study
are of no significance whatsoever unless a visual sighting of the object also
1s made.
Taken in conjunction with the Chi Square Tests discussed earlier,
the results of the re-evaluation of reports identified as UNKNOWN
SIGHTINGS would seem to indicate that the majority of them could easily
77

have been familiar objects. However, the resolution of this question with
any degree of certainty appears to be impossible.
Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were identified as.
UNKNOWNS by the data reduction process, there were only 12 that were
described with sufficient detail that they could be used in an attempt to
derive a model of a "flying saucer". The following is a summary of the 12
good UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS:

Case I {Serial 0573. 00)
Two men employed by a rug-cleaning firm were driving across a
bridge at 0955 hours on July 29, 1948, when they saw an object glide across
the road a few hundred feet in front of them. It was shiny and metallic in
construction, about 6 to 8 feet long and 2 feet wide. It was in a flat glide
path at an altitude of about 30 feet and in a moderate turn to the left. It was
seen for only a few seconds and apparently went down in a wooded area,
although no trace of it was found.

6' to 8'

1-1/2' X 2'

These are round cups which protrude

Case II {Serial 4508. 00)
A naval aviation student, his wife, and several others were at a
drive-in movie from 2115 to 2240 hours on April 20, 1952, during which
time they saw several groups of objects fly over. There were from two to
nine objects in a group and there were about 20 groups. The groups of
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objects flew in a straight line except for some changes in direction
accomplished in a manner like any standard aircraft turn.
The objects were shaped like conventional aircraft. The unaccountable feature of the objects was that each had a red glow surrounding it and
was glowing itself, although it was a cloudless night.

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Case III (Serial 2013. 00, 2014. 00, and 2014. 01)
Two tower operators sighted a light over a city airport at 2020 hours
on January 20, 1951. Since a commercial plane was taking off at this
time, the pilots were asked to investigate this light. They observed it at
2026 hours. According to them, it flew abreast of them at a greater
radius as they made their climbing turn, during which time it blinked some
lights which looked like running lights. While the observing plane was still
in it.s climbing turn, the object made a turn toward the plane and flew across
its nose. As the two men turned their heads to watch it, it instantly
appeared on their other side flying in the same direction as they were
flying, and then in 2 or 3 seconds it slipped under them, and they did not
see it again. Total time of the observation was not stated. In appearance,
it was like an airplane with a cigar-shaped body and straight wings, somewhat larger than a B-29. No engine nacelles were observed on the wings.

79

\_

Case N (Serial 4599. 00)
A part-time farmer and a hired hand were curing tobacco at midnight
on July 19, 1952, when they looked up and saw two cigar-shaped objects.
One hovered while the other moved to the east and came back, at which
tin1e both ascended until out of sight. Duration of observation was 3 to 4
minutes. Both had an exhaust at one end, and neither had projections of any
kind. It was stated that they appeared to be transparent and illuminated
from the inside.

Lighted

Exhaust

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Case V (Serial 0565. 00 to 0565. 03)

A pilot and copilot were flying a DC-3 at 0340 hours on July 24, 1948,
when they saw an object coming toward them. It passed to the right and
slightly above them, at which time it went into a steep climb and was lost
from sight in some clouds. Duration of the observation was about 10
seconds. One passenger was able to catch a flash of light as the object
passed. The object seemed powered by rocket or jet motors shooting a
trail of fire some 50 feet to the rear of the object. The object had no wings •
or other protrusion and had two rows of lighted windows.

Cockpit
windshield?

Pilot

Black
Copilot

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Case VI (Serial 4822. 00)
An instrument technician, while driving from a large city toward an
Air Force base on December 22, 1952, saw an object from his car at 1930
hours. He stopped his car to watch it. It suddenly moved up toward the
zenith in spurts from right to left at an angle of about 45°. It then moved
off in level flight at a high rate of speed, during which maneuver it appeared
white most of the time, but apparently rolled three times showing a red
·side. About halfway through its roll it showed no light at all. It finally
assumed a position to the south of the planet Jupiter at a high altitude, at
which position it darted back and forth, left and right alternately. Total
time of the observation was 15 minutes. Apparently, the observer just
stopped watching the object.

Deep red

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Case VII (Serial 2728. 00}
A Flight Sergeant saw an object over an Air Force base in Korea at
0842 hours on June 6, 1952. The object flew in a series of spinning and
tumbling actions. It was on an erratic course, first flying level, then
stopping momentarily, shooting straight up, flying level and again tumbling,
then changing course and disappearing into the sun. It reappeared and was
seen flying back and forth across the sun. At one time an F-86 passed
between the observer and the _object. He pointed it out to another man who
saw it as it maneuvered near the sun.

Black lines evenly spaced

Proportion 7 to 1
(Dimensions are as
shown in observer's
original drawing)

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Case VIII (Serial 0576. 00)
An electrician was standing by the bathroom window of his home,
facing west, at 0825 hours on July 31, 1948, when he first sighted an object.
He ran to his kitchen where he pointed out the object to his wife. Total
time in sight was approximately 10 seconds, during which the object flew
on a straight and level course from horizon to horizon, west to east.

f

6' to 8'

20'

(Ratio approx. 3:1)

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Case IX (Serial 0066. 00)
A farmer and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at his fishing camp
on August 13, 1947. At about 1300 hours, he went to look for the boys,
having sent them to the river for some tape from his boat. He noticed an
object some 300 feet away, 75 feet above the ground. He saw it against
the background of the canyon wall which was 400 feet high at this point. It
was hedge hopping, following the contour of the ground, was sky blue,
about 20 feet in diameter and 10 feet thick, and had pods on the side from
which flames were shooting out. It made a swishing sound. The observer
stated that the trees were highly agitated by the craft as it passed over.
His two sons also observed the object. No one saw the object for more
than a few seconds.

. Side view

End view

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Case X (Serial 1119. 00}
An employee in the supersonic laboratory of an aeronautical laboratory and some other employees of this lab, were by a river, 2- 1/2
miles from its mouth, yvhen they saw an object. The time was about 1700
hours on May 24, 1949. The object was reflecting sunlight when observed
by naked eye. However, he then looked at it with 8-power binoculars, at
which time there was no glare. (Did glasses have filter?} It was of
metallic construction and was seen with good enough resolution to show
that the skin was dirty. It moved off in horizontal flight at a gradually increasing rate of speed, until it seemed to approach the speed of a jet
before it disappeared. No propulsion was apparent. Time of observation
was 2- 1/2 to 3 minutes.

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Something equivalent
to a patch

Direction
of motion

/

in rear

Surface appeared dirty
and spotty in color

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Case XI (Serial 1550. 00}
On March 20, 1950, a Reserve Air Force Captain and an airlines
Captain were flying a commercial airlines flight. At 21:26, the airline
Captain directed the attention of the Reserve Air Force Captain to an object
which apparently was flying at high speed, approaching the airliner from
the south on a north heading. The Reserve Air Force Captain focused his
attention on the object. Both crew members watched it as it passed in front
of them and went out of sight to the right. The observation, which lasted
about 25 to 35 seconds, occurred about 15 miles north of a medium-sized
city. When the object passed in front of the airliner, it was not more than
1/2 mile distant and at an altitude of about 1000 feet higher than the airliner.
The object appeared to be circular, with a diameter of approximately
100 feet and with a vertical height considerably less than the diameter,
giving the object a disc-like shape. In the top center was a light which was
blinking at an estimated 3 flashes per second. This light was so brilliant
that it would have been impossible to look at it continuously had it not been
blinking. This light could be seen only when the object was approaching
and after it had passed the airliner. When the object passed in front of the
observers, the bottom side was visible. The bottom side appeared to have
9 to 12 symmetrical oval or circular portholes located in a circle approximately 3/4 of the distance from the center to the outer edge. Through these
portholes came a soft purple light about the shade of aircraft fluorescent
lights. The object was traveling in a straight line without spinning. Considering the visibility, the length of time the object was in sight, and the
distance from the object, the Reserve Air Force Captain estimates the
speed to be in excess of 1000 mph.

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Flashing light

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Case XII (Serial 3601. 00)
At 0535 on the morning of August 25, 1952, a musician for a radio
station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object
hovering about 10 feet above a field near the road along which he was
driving. As he came abreast of the object, he stopped his car and got out
to watch. Having an artificial leg, he could not leave the road, since the
surrounding terrain was rough. However, he was within about 100 yards
of it at the point he was standing on the road. The object was not absolutely
still, but seemed to rock slightly as it hovered. When he turned off the
motor of his car, he could hear a deep throbbing sound coming from the
object. As he got out of the car, the object began a vertical ascent with a
sound similar to "a large covey of quail starting to fly at one time". The
object ascended vertically through broken clouds until out of sight. His
view was not obscured by clouds. The observer states that the vegetation
was blown about by the object when it was near the ground.
Description of the object is as follows:

It was about 75 feet long, 45 feet wide, and 15 feet thick, shaped like
two oval meat platters placed together. It was a dull aluminum color, and
had a smooth surface. A medium-blue continuous light shone through the
one window in the front section. The head and shoulders of one man, sitting
motionless, facing the forward edge of the object, were visible. In the
midsection of the object were several windows extending from the top to the
rear edge of the object; the midsection of the ship had a blue light which
gradually changed to different shades. There was a large amount of activity
and movement in the midsection that could not be identified as either human
or mechanical, although it did not have a regular pattern of movement.
There were no windows, doors or portholes, vents, seams, etc., visible
to the observer in the rear section of the object or under the object (viewed
at time of ascent). Another identifiable feature was a series of propellers
6 to 12 inches in diameter spaced closely together along the outer edge of
the object. These propellers were mounted on a bracket so that they
revolved in a horizontal plane along the edge of the object. The propellers
were revolving at a high rate of speed.
Investigation of the area soon afterward showed some evidence of
vegetation being blown around. An examination of grass and soil samples
taken indicated nothing unusual. Reliability of the observer was considered
good.

89

20' to 25'
height

.....,._____ Approximately
----~
75' long

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These 12 sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of
their shapes, as follows:
( l} Propeller shape - Case I
(2) Aircraft shape - Cases II and III

(3) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V
(4) Elliptical or disc shape - Cases VI to XII
The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descriptions were given in enough detail to permit diagrams of the objects to be
drawn. It might be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI)
the observer had already drawn a diagram of what he had seen.
The objective of this section of the study was the conceiving of a
model, or models. The requirement that the description be detailed is an
important one, and was the easiest to determine in the re-evaluation program. However, a good model ought to satisfy the following conditions as
well:
( 1)

The general shape of the object and the maneuvers it
performed should fit the reports of many of the UNKNOWNS
and thus explain them.

(2)

The observer and the report should be reliable.

(3}

The report should contain elements which should have
been observed with accuracy, and which eliminate the
possibility that the sighting could be ascribed to a
familiar object or to a known natural phenomenon.

( 4}

The model should be derived from two or more good
UNKNOWNS between which there is no essential conflict.

It can be shown that it is not possible to deduce a model from the 12
cases that will satisfy all of these conditions. The following case-by-case
discussion of the 12 good UNKNOWNS will illustrate this point:
( 1)

Case I does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 4. The reported
shape of this object is not duplicated in any of the other
UNKNOWNS.

• (2)

Case II does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 3. There are
very few UNKNOWNS in the aircraft shape classification.
In addition, the unusual characteristic of this sighting
(i.e., the red glow) could have been reflection of the
lights of Flint from the objects if they were either birds
or aircraft.
91

(3) Case III does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not
satisfy Condition 4 when Case II is eliminated as a
good UNKNOWN.
(4)

Case IV does not satisfy Conditions 1 or 2. There are
few cigar-shaped or rocket-shaped objects reported in
the literature. In addition, this observer is not considered to be well-qualified technically.

(5) Case V does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not
satisfy Condition 4 when Case IV is eliminated as a
good UNKNOWN.

It might be argued here that many of the UNKNOWNS might actually
have shapes similar to these good UNKNOWNS. It will be noted, however,
that each of these five cases does not satisfy one of the other three conditions.
(6)

Case VI does not satisfy Condition 2. In the description
of the object, it was stated that at certain times there
was no light seen from the object. Apparently, the
"band of no light", as diagrammed by the observer, was
an attempt to explain this. However, if the object were
constructed as shown in the diagram, light should have
been seen at all times. Because of this conflict the
drawing is not considered reliable, and without the drawing, there is not enough detail in the description to make
it useful for this study.

(7) Case VII violates Conditions 1 and 4. Although the shape
is disc-like, the maneuvers performed by the object are
unique both among the UNKNOWNS and among the good
UNKNOWNS.
Cases VIII to XII satisfy Conditions 1 through 3, but they do not
satisfy Condition 4. The features which make them different from each
other are as follows:
(8) Case VIII. The object is smooth, with no protrusions
or other details.
( 9)

Case IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each
side that were shooting out flames.

(10)

Case X.

( 11)

Case XI. The object had a series of portholes, or
windows, on its under side.

The,object had a fin or rudder.

92

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(12) Case XII. The object had windows in its top and front
and its top midsection. It also had a set of propellers
around its waist.
It is not possible, therefore, to derive a verified model of a "flying
saucer" from the data that have been gathered to date. This point is important enough to emphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they saw
a "flying saucer", sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only 12
cases. Having culled the cream of the crop, it is still impossible to develop
a picture of what a "flying saucer" is.
In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an attempt was made
to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were
the same. No such groups were found.
On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability
that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observations of a class of "flying
saucers". It may be that some reports represent observations of not one
but several classes of objects that might have been "flying saucers";
however, the lack of evidence to confirm even one class would seem to make
this possibility remote. It is pointed out that some of the cases of KNOWNS,
before identification, appeared fully as bizarre as any of the 12 cases of
good UNKNOWNS, and, in fact, would have been placed in the class of good
UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity.
This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been
given to this problem. The reason for the nature of this publicity was
clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite fact that
upon reading a few reports, the reader becomes convinced that "flying
saucers" are real and are some form of sinister contrivance. This reaction
is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the
problem prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of
the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenomenon of the
"flying saucer" were written by men who were in this category, that is,
men who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the
fact that, as a rule, only the more lurid-sounding reports are cited in these
publications. Were it not for this common psychological tendency to be
captivated by the mysterious, it is possible that no problem of this nature
would exist.
The reaction, mentioned above, that after reading a few reports, the
reader is convinced that "flying saucers" are real and are some form of
sinister contrivance, is very misleading. As more and more of the reports
are read, the feeling that "saucers" are real fades, and is replaced by a
feeling of skepticism regarding their existence .. The reader eventually
reaches a point of saturation, after which the reports contain no new information at all and are no longer of any interest. This feeling of surfeit was
universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually
necessitated a conscious effort on their part to remain objective.

93

CONCLUSIONS

It can never be absolutely proven that "flying saucers" do not exist.
This would be true if the data obtained were to include complete scientific
measurements of the attributes of each sighting, as well as complete and
detailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It might be possible to demonstrate the existence of "flying saucers" with data of this type, IF they were
to exist.
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain
scientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
methods in the treatment of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any marked patterns or trends. The inaccuracies inherent in this type of data, in addition to the incompleteness of
a large proportion of the reports, may have obscured any patterns Qr trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relationships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order
to draw any valid conclusions.
A critical examination of the distributions of the important characteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings evaluated
as UNKNOWN, led to the conclusion that a combination of factors, principally the reported maneuvers of the objects and the unavailability of
supplemental data such as aircraft flight plans or balloon-launching records,
resulted in the failure to identify as KNOWNS most of the reports of objects
classified as UNKNOWNS.
An intensive study, aimed at finding a verified example of a "flying
saucer" or at deriving a verified model or models of "flying saucers" {as
defined on Page 1), led to the conclusion that neither goal could be attained
using the pre sent data.
It is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid evidence
consisting of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial
object.
Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in this
study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely small, since the
most complete and reliable reports from the present data, when isolated
and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough model, and since
the data as a whole failed to reveal any marked patterns or trends.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is
considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified
aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge.

94

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APPENDIX A

TABULATIONS OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE
DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS

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95 and 96

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INDEX OF TABLES
Page
Table Al.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Years

107

Table AZ.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Years

107

Table A3.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Years

108

Table A4.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, All Years.

109

Table AS.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1947

110

Table A6.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1948

111

Table A7.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1949

112

Table A8.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1950

113

Table A9.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1951

114

Table Al0.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1952

115

Table Al 1.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, All Years

116

Table AlZ.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1947

117

Table Al3.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1948

118

Table Al4.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1949

119

Table Al 5.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1950

120

Table Al 6.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1951

121

Table Al 7.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1952

122

Table Al 8.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, All Years

123

Table Al 9.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1947

124

Table AZO.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1948

125

Table AZl.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1949·

126

Table AZZ.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1950

127

Table A23.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1951

128

Table A24.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1952

129

Table A25.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years

130

Table A26.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947

130

Table A27.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948

130

Table A28.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949

130

Table A29.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950

131

Table A30.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951

131

Table A31.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952

131

Table A32.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years

132

Table A33.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947 .

132

97

INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A34.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948 .

132

Table A35.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949

132

Table A36.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950

133

Table A37.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951

133

Table A38.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952 .

133

Table A39.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years

134

Table A40.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947

134

Table A41.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948

134

Table A42.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949

134

Table A43.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950

135

Table A44.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951

135

Table A45.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952

135

Table A46.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

136

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

136

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1947 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

136

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1947 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

136

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

137

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

137

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

137

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

137

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

138

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

138

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1951 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

138

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1951 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

138

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1952 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers

139

Table A47.

Table A48.

Table A49.

Table AS0.

Table A51.

Table A52.

Table A53.

Table A54.

Table A55.

Table A56.

Table A57.

Table ASS.

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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Table A59.

Evaluation of All Sightings for 1952 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers

139

Table A60.

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, All Sightings

140

Table A61.

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Unit Sightings

140

Table A62.

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Object Sightings

140

Table A63.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported .

141

Table A64.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported

142

Table A65.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported

143

Table A66.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object

144

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects .

144

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects •

145

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .

145

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .

146

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object

147

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects .

147

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects .

148

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .

148

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .

149

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object

150

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects •

150

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects .

151

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .

151

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .

152

Table ABl.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years

153

Table A82.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947

153

Table A67.

Table A68.

Table A69.

Table A 70.

Table A 71.

Table A 72.

Table A 73.

Table A 74.

Table A 7 5.

Table A 76.

Table A 77.

Table A 78.

Table A 79.

Table ABO.

99

INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A83.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948

154

Table A84.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949

• 154

Table A85.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950

155

Table A86.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1951

155

Table A87.

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952

156

Taole ABB.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years

157

Table A89.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947

157

Table A90.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948

158

Table A91.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949

158

Table A92.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950

159

Table A93.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1951

159

Table A94.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952

160

Table A95.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years.

161

Table A 96.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947

161

Table A 97.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948

162

Table A 98.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949

162

Table A99.

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950

163

Table Al00. Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sightings, 1951

163

Table Al0l. Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952

164

Table Al02.

Table Al 03.

Table Al 04.

Table Al 05.

Table Al06.

Table Al07.

Table Al 08.

Table Al 09.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less

165

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds

166

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds .

167

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds

168

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes .

169

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes

170

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes

171

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated .

172

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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Table AllO.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less

173

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds

174

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds .

175

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds

176

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes •

177

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes

178

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes

179

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated .

180

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less

181

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds

182

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds •

183

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds

184

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes .

185

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes

186

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes

187

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated •

188

Table Al26.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical

189

Table Al27.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft

189

Table Al 28.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet

190

Table Al29.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular, Conical,
or Teardrop

190

Table Al30.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame

191

Table Al3l.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes

191

Table Al32.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated

192

Table A 111.

Table All2.

Table A 113.

Table All4.

Table All 5.

Table All6.

Table Al 17.

Table All 8.

Table All 9.

Table AlZ0.

Table Al2l.

Table Al22.

Table Al 23.

Table Al24.

Table Al 25.

101

INDEX OF TABLES
(Contin~ed)
Page
Table Al 33.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical •

193

Table Al 34.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft

193

Table Al35.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet

194

Table Al 36.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular,
Conical, or Teardrop

194

Table A 137.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame

195

Table Al38.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes.

195

Table Al 39.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated

196

Table Al40.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical

197

Table Al41.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft

197

Table Al42.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet

198

Table Al43.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular,
Conical, or Teardrop

198

Table A 144.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame

199

Table Al45.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes

199

Table Al46.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated.

200

Table Al47.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary

201

Table Al48.

Evaluation of All Sightings for AU Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less
Than One Hundred Miles per Hour .

201

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One
Hundred to Four Hundred Miles per Hour

202

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour

202

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .

203

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated .

203

Table Al 53.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary.

204

Table Al 54.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less Than
One Hundred Miles per Hour .

204

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One Hundred
to Four Hundred Miles per Hour

205

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour

205

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .

206

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated .

206

Table Al49.

Table Al 50.

Table Al 51.

Table Al 52.

Table Al 55.

Table Al56.

Table Al 57.

Table Al 58.

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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Table Al 59.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary

207

Table Al60.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less
Than One Hundred Miles per Hour .

207

Elevation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One
Hundred to Four Hundred Miles per Hour.

208

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour.

208

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .

209

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated •

209

Table Al65.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness.

210

Table Al66.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness

211

Table Al67.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness

212

Table Al68.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, All Years

213

Table Al69.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1947

214

Table Al70.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1948

215

Table Al71.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1949

216

Table Al 72.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1950

217

Table Al 73.

Location of Observer During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1951

Table Al 74.

Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1952

219

Table Al 75.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .

220

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Obje:::ts .

220

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated

221

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Golors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects •

221

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects .

222

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects

222

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects .

223

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors

223

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .

224

Table Al 61.

Table Al 62.

Table Al63.

Table Al64.

Table Al 76.

Table Al 77.

Table Al 78.

Table Al 79.

Table Al 80.

Table AlBl.

Table Al 82.

Table Al83.

103

.

218

INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table Al84.

Table Al85.

Table Al86.

Table Al87.

Table Al88.

Table Al 89.

Table Al 90.

Table Al 91.

Table Al 92.

Table Al 93.

Table Al 94.

Table Al 95.

Table Al 96.

Table Al 97.

Table Al 98.

Table Al 99.

Table A200.

Table A201.

Table A202.

Table A203.

Table A204.

Table A205.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Objects .

224

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated

225

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects .

225

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects

226

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects

226

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects •

227

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors

227

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .

228

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Objects .

228

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated

229

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects .

229

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects .

230

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects.

230

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects .

231

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors

231

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object

232

Evaluation of All Sightings for Ali Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .

232

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects •

233

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects .

233

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated

234

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object

235

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .

235

104

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I
I

INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Table A206.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects .

236

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting'
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects .

236

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated

237

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object

238

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .

238

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects •

239

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects •

239

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated •

240

Table A214.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location

241

Table A215.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location

241

Table A216.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location

242

Table A2 l 7.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by North American Location.

243

Table A218.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by North American Location

243

Table A219.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by North American Location

244

Table A220.

Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location

245

Table A221.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location

246

Table A222.

Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location

247

Table A223.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region

248

Table A224.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region

248

Table A225.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region

248

Table A226.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region

249

Table A227.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region .

249

Table A228.

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region

249

Table A229.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region

250

Table A230.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region

250

Table A231.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region .

250

Table A232.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region

251

Table A207.

Table A208.

Table A209.

Table A210.

Table A211.

Table A212.

Table A213.

INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A233.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region

251

Table A234.

Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region

251

Table A235.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region

252

Table A236.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region

252

Table A237.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region

252

Table A238.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region .

253

Table A239.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region .

253

Table A240.

Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region .

253

106

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IV

7'/l.tlL£

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d4"7

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Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Number

Evaluation
().Balloon

t1tJ

l·Astronomical

4'1/,

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H'i

/xtJ ¢.ti 1.4 St, /t/tl
71// !?;1 ;¢.? /;Jt, 255
'Jfli u/Z ///
f.tl 2tll

'7

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Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain lloublful Total

/) (}

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Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cerlaon Ooubltul Total Ceit11R iiouiiiiiii
-- - - ~ ~ Number

L.tJ

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iV/ I.. !, ;'I/:!.
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qt,

2:J
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'IS /%,

,,,,, Sf !?u 11..5 14

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2

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u

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t'l.f

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1

1.1

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4-Birds

If

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tlf

ti

Cl

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S-Clouds, Dust. etc.

/] /]

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6-lnsuffi~ Info.

I/;'

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4

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CICJ ::..''5

2!?

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1.1 z.'J'
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Total

2100

Evaluation

Per Cent
Nunter
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Oooblhl Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu

7-Psychological

¥(//

J'S

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,,;;,; tJ.;} NI,;

,os

/:Z,

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ft.x 1/J.2 llf/0 ;v/ fl

?ttJ/ -7/? 2il /VU

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S.l

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0

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,f

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/(/

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tl.0

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tl

(,/0

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0
0
0
0

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a,, 11;;

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17
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Total

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Evaluation

Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Nuni>er
Certain Doublful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Domtlul Total Certain Ooobtlu Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doublful Total Certain DouLtfu

00 /t.0 ;,j
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ALL

1,5'

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zit,

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I~

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7-Psychological

,;,;,

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L/91

9-0thei

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Total

1111 1;7 ?!:,I/ '11.f ~f./ /tl().

Evaluation

Per Cent
NuCertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

£5'

O.Balloon

I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft

21!,t/2,
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2
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lt,S 0. {J

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PerCml

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PerCSII

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£~

w

/f.?/
Nwnbe1

5' ?1 /,1.;, .t4 1-t.?
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C'O

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0-Balloon

J. 9 S9 JJ/.1
1'
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9.2 ?IJ.{, 2,
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tlo

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/1/1
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5.0 15".tJ ~!,/) :zn 4f7 /2.L/ 115 1271
;'7 1/J' I.J /JJ Z/
t?.7 2.tl ,Z/,
If IJ.I. cu /I4
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,,

fo1_a_

/2,

'1/7£

Per Cent

Number

,j
Zf? !Ci Z.g If I //l
f!!, '7,/ 111,:0 gz 21/2 25
/!, nL 12.'1 "-(9 /'ti.
;,:,
/)/J
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0.0 19.0
(}
rJ./} 17.IJ
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0
ti

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ds/
Per Cent

Number

,<n

4.t • I~

j".',;

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107

21,

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217.0 tl.O 12~,:,
1./J IJ, 9
?.9

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0-BallDDII

1-Asbonolaical
2-Airaaft

Higt,tPhenom.
4-Birds

6-lnsulli~ ~b.
7-Psydlllo&ical

!Mllber

/fc.?
Evaluation

q
;t/

I

17

-1 I? IQ~ 1//

17
IJ

;t/ If.I,

IJ.t) /J.t,
?
tJ.O 116 11/K

I

I

t, IJ.K

IJ.f

fJ

tJ

n 27.1

?5'
tl.lJ 21.f .ftJJ

'I'

tJ

7

tJ.tJ 5:f

tJ

IJ

4-Birds

IJ

/J

I)

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/).f}

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/J

IJ

tJ

/J;;

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N

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7-Psycllolo!ical

!2,

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II-Unknown

_N

t:J

!Mllller

~

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Total

139

,,,,

z /?.

n

17

3-Li&lltl'll!nom.

fl/

1-Astrooomical

Nulll>er
Per Cenl
Nu•ber
ertain Oooblful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cellain Ooublfu

n; 119
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I, IN.Ji' ,,,,
fl ,, / :2 11.,I /. I ,i..
ti !d.t/ .;:tJ 11.¢ 19.1 171. fl,f l:t.? II 7 I'll/I
1, IJ.i tJi It H
Fl .19 I.? A.f ?I.
I /}/} /JX /I~
1
S" t./ /15 /J 'l /JS

?5 1?.II ?._;/ !ti.~
?9 ;;/f ff.'! !.V
u 1.5'.IJ s.3 Jli'.1
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/Jn
11./J

0-BailOCMI
2-Airaaft

/~-2.

/?S-/

Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Certain OOUblful Total Certain Oooblful Total Certain Doubtful Total Ceflain Ooublld Total

,,,,

,,,,,

/Jn

/.:Z
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9 15 /.Ji' f;,J

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14

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II

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tJNt
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f.f
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s-/ /Q

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?/J.t

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,,, { ' It)(). '075" I/ti, ,,:-,,,; 171.1. 2.i'.¢ ,,,n_

108

Pe,C<nl

Total Cerbin OOJbtful • Tot.t

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S-Clouds, Dus~ el~

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I Evaluation

•ov

Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total J;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

Humbel
Per Cent
Number
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1
0

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J.(}

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Evaluahon

()

o. 0

11.0

Number

ID-Balloon

I

0

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I

I

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PerCenl
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Number
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I
()
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7
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Number

Evaluabon

o.o

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1l-Astronom1cal

('
r.

~~~aft

0
C
0
0

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(;

4-Bnds

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6-lnsuff,c. ~to.

3

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0
0
0

S-Clouds. Dust, etc.

Total

I

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Number
Pet'Cent
Number
Number
Per Coit
Nurrter
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17-1 15.-:l '3:1.3

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7

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u

Evaluahon

5EPT~ ~

fl'I.J IP.1 /II.

JU {,.ff lf.O 39 39 73 '!.t 9t JU
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IS./ 113 1,s !"i /0.(, II ,J 2J.'J
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7,2. /66 /'f.7 /I 3 '2t. t
41 J.; ~1 //.5
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4/ /IS"
3/f 1.f

/Pl ;t.f

I

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I 0.8 ().{) g.8
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Number
Per Cent
Nurrtler
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Number
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0-Balloon

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/fl,

If

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r.imber
Per Cent
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!O-Billoon
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3-Li&f'II Phenom.

,--.'{'

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Per Cent
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Number
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Number
Number
certain
Doubtful
Certain
Doubtful
Total
Certain
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Total Certain Doubtful Total
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Total

v--

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MtJ,vr,1

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Evaluation
jO-B~loon

Number

Per Cent

: l•Astmnom1cal

1

!2-Aucraft

'\

:3-Liatit Phtmm.
4-Buds

I

.'?''Y.

:5-c1ouds, Dus~ etc.

i

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0

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0
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3 23} (J,[) )3.1
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17.

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Total

r-I

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0

0

l•AstRJnomial

I

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0
0
0

0
0

4-Birds
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o,,..~,,

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Number
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Number
Number
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0-~toon

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Percent
Hunter
Per Cent
Number
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I
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0.0 ~.O
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Number
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I

I

1

lb,1'

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Certain Doubtful Total Certain - I l l I Total Certain lloulllful Total Cerllio Doubllul Total

0-Balloon

13.3 .33.J
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Percent
Number
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Evaluation

0-Balloon
,l•Astlonom1cal

4-Buds

/S-Clouds. Oust, etc.

!6--lnsuffic.lnfo.
!1-PsychD~11cal

18-UnknoMI

9-0lller

Tot~

Evaluahon

Certain

•0.Balloon
:I-Astronom1cal
2•Aucraft

i------------~--~+--=--+-'-'.......,f-'=-~l---.4-~l---=-l~-~~---'-+--'-+~-'+-,H-~-~-~'-+-~<-+~-+---+-~-~--

3-L1ghl Phenom.

[4:S~
S.Ctouds. Oust, etc.
6--tnsuffic.lnlo.

7-Psycholo&ical

8-UnklloNI
9-0lller

Total

Evaluabon

0.Balloon
1-Aslrol'IOllical
2-Ancr,H

4-Birds

S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
6-lnsuflic. -.11.

7-Psydl>lo&ical

11-Unlolo•

Total

134

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lilmbef

Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

Evaluation

'1

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"l·Asln>lllmical

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()

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0

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0

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Number

0.Balloon

10

7

l•Astronom1c.al

IL/

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2-Aucraft

I IP

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3-L,;it Phenom.

2

4-Birds

~~ds,Oust.etc.

0
0

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Per Cent
Number
Percent
Nuntier
Per Cent
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PerCmt
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobllul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu Total Certain lloobtful Total

1-Astronomical

I

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4-

/f/5/
0t?t?£)

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II-Balloon

~louds, Dus~ ek

/ I,. 7 3.J )O.( '1
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Percent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Number

.E//At.///l; itlJt/

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£xt£lL£A/7

4-Bints

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Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain DoubtftJI Total

'1 1).5 00 /J.S ']
8 'f. If ,s.G 7S.0 'I
3 (,,_). 3. I 1.3 6

'
Evaluation

/?j(

S/Gl(T/IV6S

c21/JEt!r

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1/,'f J J. I

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3. 3 11
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JO 'f.. 3 0 i

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5! 105 'I., '1. 0 Ji.< I 'I
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81 JI, 7 IS,) /lf.3 ]9.• '7 3
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3

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0.2

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0

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2.

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18 37 ?./ 7. 7 IS'.8
J2 'I 3 9.'1 1.lf I 'ii. 3
16 '+ 'f 9.R
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0
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135

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1'/l(lL.t:
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Evatuahon
'0-Balloon
l!·.~~IDlll-.::::"'::_1_.J_.U.._j_i.J.__j_jr.L_JLl:..Ll-,':...i:-1-LLJLµ!Lj_:,_L-IL..l'.~e&LJ....LL.c.l..1µ;;<"'1---7aLJ...£.L.jL.!..Jie..+=4.il.!.L,.ll,__,LJ-~'----I-.....LI-.J..J.'....J..~&..µ=Ll,t.;t,_,;>_j
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3-Liaht Phenom.
4-Biids
S-Clouds. Oust. etc.

6-lnsuffic. Info.
7-Psydlllo11cal
8-Uwown

Total

tfLt.

StG tfTl/1/6 5

Evaluation

0-Balloon
l•Astrooomical
3-Utf,tPtlenom.

I
I
I
I
I
I

4-Birds

I

S-Clouds, Dust, etc.
,&-lnsuflic.lnto.

17-Psycholoeical
8-Unkno'MI

I
I

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I

Total

dll
I

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I Evaluation

,,,;J-o"'

,(},,-, v6' 7 FOL

Gt?t?L7

PerCml
Number
Nuntier
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerC01t
Certain Doubtful Total Certain lloubtfu I Total Certain Dollllful Total Certain Doobtlul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certan Doublfu Total Certain Dooblful Total

0-Balloon

I

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Evaluatioa
0-Balloon

II-Astronomical

2-A1rc_.::,aftc.:..__-4__.y__."'-lf-J"--1-""-'4....lL'-"'+--"'-'4--'+--4~'4~Zf-_:µ_-'<.j...Jl..<q...-'-'.'-+-.....t.4-'-'.'-+-.f61.lJ-(L..£.,cµ.<£:-t---LL+-....lL+.JL+..<=+..<"'-"'....+-1LL"-I
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6-lnsuffic. ~ID.

7-Psydll~&ical
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136

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l·ASIIDl'INIIICII

2•A1mlft
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jl-L1&fll Phenom.
4-Birds

S-CloudS,. Oust. etc.

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7-Psydlolofcal
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Total

ft}

7,,ULE

ff

EI/AL.1/AT/OAI

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Evaluation
:!)..Balloon
1-Astronomu:al

!2-Aircraft

il·LIPIPhenom.
14-Buds

iS-Clouds. Oust. etc.
S.lnsuffic.lnfo.

]7-Psycholo,:ical
!&,.unknown

'-Other

Toto!

r,M1.e

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t,
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Number·
Per Ce,!
Number
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Number
PerCmt
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Certlin Doobtful Total Certain Ooubtful Total Ce1tain _,1u1 Total Certain Ooobllul Total Certain Ooubtful Total Certain Ooubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu Total Certain IJCllbtful Total

0-Batloon

3-LightPhS'IOCI.

~

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M11..1r,,9,ey-

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:1-AstruT1011111:al
2-Aucratt

4-Buds
S-Clouds, Dust. etc.

6-lnsuff1c. -.11>.
7-Psyth>lo&ical

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;:-,r~c~.:.. c,1;r

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1-Astmnomic:al
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Total Certain Doubtful Total

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1,

138

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Evaluation

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I-Astronomical
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o..e,uoon
1-Astsormical
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J.L•lht P'tlenom.
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JI.Balloon
I-Astronomical
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·v,A

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f? ,2.S

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I Evaluation

Number

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Per Cent

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.2.a l. I 1/,S
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N.rr,1. 1 //1'
Number

142

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Per Cent

! Evaluabon

Celt•• Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful I Totat

10.Balloon

2.£:;; J:l.Z !3:;'9

I-Asb0noll1cal

2711- ;us //~

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W8/r.F /JP

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t:IJ /f:11- s-, / I f /IJ/ 1.S 2.0 lf,S- St, 2'1 111 .2.S J.3 .l'I 211
7 &' IS- "-3 '7,1/ tl. i II
9..J 2✓.'I /£ ST /2il. 1,(/ J..6 s;t,
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2. b r. ').. ti/ ().3
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Number

Evaluation

7,/1 l-J.f lZV

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l(!,04,,rr An/•

I

Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfull Toi.al Certain Doubtful Total

IS'

1-Astnioomical

3C 25'

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Number
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('TATFP

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Number.,.,,
Number
Percent
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Certain Doubtful Total Certain lloubtfuI Toi.al Certain Doubtful Total c.rtaio Doubtful Toi.al Certain Doubtful Toi.al Certaio Doubtful Total Certin Ooubtfu Toi.al Certain Doubtful Total
0, I) t),/
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Percent
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11-Astrommu:al

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Number
Per Cent
PerCotl
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t:l.o 0-3

<I- /<I Vf· -;z.'f /0.3 IS'/- /12
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ltf- 37 /,., /(). 3 212
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Number
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EWlluation

1l-Astiuno111ical

/2-Aucraft

3-Litfll Phenom.
4-Bnds

I~

/0

7

IZ

(,7

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31? IOS I/Lt ;P.t. tf.1/
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7-Psydlolojical

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108

9-0lller

23

0
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Total

Z73

Evaluation

Per Cent
Number
PerC01I
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

s JJj'

;.I

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25' 1,t,_(/ /}(,
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0
0
0

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0

0

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0

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/J.p /JP /217
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1-?t:.tJ /1 ✓1 25-o

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0

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ti.CJ tUJ /11?
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0

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0
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0

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0

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I

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0

0

ao

19SC?

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4-Birds

lo

I

S-Clouds. Dust, etc.

0

0

6-lnsutfic. ~to.

I/

0

7-PSJCholofic.al

f.2

0
0
0
I

Evaluabon

o.o

o.o
50.0 o.O so.o
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0

0

0

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0

0

0

0

0

0

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tl. tJ tJ.tJ I.J.t?

0

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0

0

0

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0

0

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S-Clouds. Oust, etc.

0
0

0
0

0

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0
0

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0

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/

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0

0
0

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0

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0

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0
I

0
0
0
I

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a

0.0

6-lnsutfic. flto.

I

0

Total

z

0

2

/000

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I

0

,:JO ,..a,

C) IJ.t}

t7.t7 aP

I

0

I

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!I-Astronomical

().0

'I-

I

I

t?/J .t.2cl 11.t?

0

I

0

/'7S-/

I

5.t.

17.t?

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/?.J°<.
Percent

Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total

0

0

I
5.1.. P-t:' s.t
G ff.1 a t1 n.1

7

0
0
0

0

0
I

0
0

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Per Cent

0

~

I

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0

0

s

I
0
0

I

0 /1/1 /1/1 (7.,t) 0
I Id.ti l..?.G:P £!;.I) 0

I
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0 /J.t:J IJ.t} ~p

2 111.~ 12.,:; 25-tJ
5 ~.!.5 tJ.t) ~2.5

S'

0
/

()..Balloon

I

0
I

0
I
0
0

/';?S-0
lllmbef

0

0

t?.u tJ.;;

d.O

Number
Per Cent
Per Ceo!
Nui;ertain Doulllful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cerlaio Doullllul Total

I

I

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3

9 //J. .1
7 _g_~

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2

3

l)

0

0

<I- I. 9

0 lit?.tl 1£).p la?.

/0

145

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0
0

tl.t:) (J.t) t).t7 3
2.
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IJ.17 17.tJ p,CJ
0
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z 1dl.; t?.P //1.J.v ~8
I I4/.>,c ao 12'ao ;z
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0

II

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0 11.t? IJ;; /1() ;e
I IZ .!f..5 .?.~ t/?_f
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0
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0
0
0 0
tJ.tl ().CJ /Jf} 0
<I- 1,/_g /J./1 ,,(_g I
0
0
0 Ll.() P-tJ ll.tJ 0
0
K 1ft, tJ_t} B.t 3
I
< fl. 1,t, 'f.2 I

I

;'];Jeers

7'6'/V

Number
Pereeot
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

/9S/

0
0

-r/J

Per Ceo!

Numbef

Number

~Balloon

6'y

9'.Et9RS
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/9<,C9
Per Cent

Number

lllmbef

~8'11oon

s tG ¢' r(A(6 s
P=,e
S"/611/T/Au:::

/9<,C.7

ALL

YE,1,e.5
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tolal

/Jd/c~rs

(17,C

A///M,-,e,,,

2

/. 7 . u
!,.2,

155

~t. /2.C.

tJ.P 5.1,
tu' 41? f.-"
/JJ1 ttt:J 17.o
5'.2

tJ.,!l

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0 t.?.t? t1.t? 62tJ
02'ii' k/,:.J /J.tJ 1~1
I 3 f.,/ /.7 5'.I

0

sa ln.s ln..z ltl:1.

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/Jll',,,,dc.e

,.,~

t?/fJ§e;rs

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S/GN7'.""G

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Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total t:e,tain Doubtful

Number

Evaluation

7, '?

I

0

I

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I

0

I

i:;,3 I~.(;

0

0

0

3./
o,u.

M,

q,7

0

0

0

o.o

o.o

9.<,<

0

0

0

1,6

0.0

f.(,

0

tJ
0

0

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I

5""

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/~

I

I • Z/.[I

(.'3

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?'6'J£t!;rS"

2s.£

0

C)

0

o.o

o.o ao

0

0

(.)

cJ.O

o.o cJ.O

a

I

I

tJ.O :z!i.O 25.C

z

0

z.

2t(,

0.0 lz8.,

o.O
o.o

0.0

C)

0

0

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o.c

0

0

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C>. 0

0,0

0

/

f

0

t).O

0.0

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0

0
0

o.o

0.0

0
0
0

0

Ci

0

z ;;:: 8'.C, o.o 2lU,

2-Aircraft

fl

¥-

l? t:,.3

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z

3

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6

I
0

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0

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f
fl

C)

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7-Psydlolo~cal

I

0

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IHJnknown
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0

Total

Sr

7

Evaluation

Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain DOllbtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Dooblful Tot~ r.;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooul.ltfu

6
I

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12 /8,7

o.o /'/.2 z
o.o /,{, 0

0

c,,o /R.7

0

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o.o $.f

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0
0

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tJ.o SO.<

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ao

0

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0.0

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0

0

0

0,()

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0

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t:)

0
0

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z

0

0

0

0

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0

lf- /OO.C ao

/'1.S/

0

0

0

IJ).O

0

I-Astronomical

z

0

0

0
0

0
0

2~Aircraft

0

0

.2 M,.7 ao 61:,.1
o.c 0.0 o.o
0

0

/

I

3-Light Phenom.

0

0

4--Birds

0
0

0
0

0
0

5-Clouds.Dust,etc.

0
0

a

o.o
0.0 so.o

2
0
0

0-Balloon

C),0

c,,I)

o.o
ao

0
0

0.0

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C)

0

0

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O.o

0

0

0

(!).0

C'.l.O

(!).0

0
0

o.o n.3 333
0.0 e>.O 0.0
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0

0

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0

0.0

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CJ

0,()

40

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0

0
0

0

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50.0
0,0

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o.o

o.o o.C
o.o o.o

o.~

0,0

0.0

0

0

0

t:J.O

o.c

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d.D • 3

0

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o.o 'R.8

o.o

t),0

0

0

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0

0.0

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t/, so.o so.o ftJQ,

7

0

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0,0

0.0

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0.0

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6
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0
0
0
0
0

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0.0

I
3

z.3

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7.0

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0

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9
I

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o.o ,6.1

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I

0

ao o.o t),0
o.o 0.0 O.t)

0

t),0

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0

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0

8-Unknown

0

0

0

o.o

(!),0

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0

0

9-0ther

/

0

/

33.3

o.o 13.3

t)

0

Total

3

0

3

lt)().0

0.0 J,:)O,

z

I

3

66.7 3.3.3 /00. 3'1

2._ ~.7

,:,,0

0.0

O.l

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0.0 0.0

o.o

0, 0

:zs.c 25',0
ci.O
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cJ.O o.o ao

$0,0

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Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Total Certain Doubtful Total r;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

zs.o o.o 25.CJ
a tJ 2S.I.
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0-Balloon

t?,C

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't"Edi!' [

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tf/t/t'16't:R
/'T'f? l?

ao ti.o

9
I

7.0

2.3 'f.3
0.0 2'1,'f

7.0 1,.3
o.o 'f:7
J</-,O

7.0

20.'f

C'.O u,,'f

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i!J.0

;e.3

Pe, C151t
Total

Certain Doublful Total

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

I
I
I
I
I
I
146

I
I

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Per Cent
PerC111l
Number
Percent
Number
PerCIIII
N"'ber
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fl /t...?

/)

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2$ ff£ /()_,; fltJ..1

2.

1t1

29

1.0 tJ5

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.,_

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0A

2-Ai~.

~--Dos~et,
6-lmtli, .....

/t?✓7'

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2.
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171 11..t.

tJ

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2.9
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/9~/J
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Number
PerC111l
Number
PerCenl
Certain Doubtful Tol31 Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tblal

1

f

5

5'1 22.i //J.!, 53.2 d/J
1/&.6" 5:t. 15.1 /!,
tJ ///J 0.0 /J.t} ~

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9.7
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0
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tJ
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tJ

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0

0

tJ t:?tJ

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Total

131.

.rt 172- 1-,,9:; ?o,'1 ltltJ·

M,j'

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Number
PerC...l
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;J,/J

1.t-

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l"f. I

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tJ

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?.'1' i'L,5 222- 9,J' J/S" 17.t. ?u 21:p
n 111.1' LO l i t 1/,J'..1 /j,Z. ,,,..,,. a~ //},;" .2/. (J
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9 .2.1 // 127 I I

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0

///

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.,(:J(',ll //,fT/<24(

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114"7

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Number
Number
Per Cent
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Nunt.ier
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Certain Oowtful Tol31 Certain Domtful Total Certain Domllul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu

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'1 21.t/ 2ft £,M
(/ kif k/. 1 ?ft,

t,

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j
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Total

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13 i;f 1/.L'.I. HV I ~

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11-BIIIOCNI

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73

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I

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Jt-Astronom,eal
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3,:

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51

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Number
Per Cent
Nuntier
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Number
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I , 'f 'I 'Jfj 11.'I 31.J ,:J.6

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/q

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IJ
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Evaluation
1-Astronomical

Hight Phe,om.
4-Birds

s

3

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3

JJ.

of /()£ '7 -11 ~/II) -1<1.~ r.~ r,/
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ti

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31
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3

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t1

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si--

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it, /1.:J /(9
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/JD

114

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1 tJ.O 11.7 11.7
(> 30 7.ff co 711LJ.
9 1.2. IA 2.Z.

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Total

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5

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0

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Total

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7 '17,S £., /_L~,
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ti S'.ECPN&>S' - F ,,/1,f//Vt/TffS

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//-3,t;J

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Evaluation
,O.Balloon
'l-Astranomical
I

!2-Aircraft

3-LiPI PhfflOm.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc.

;- ,f ;J.S ~3 2.'i 3
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1'1 2/ /# V
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11 L

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2-Aircraft

Hillht Phenom.
4-Birds

5-Clouds. Oust. etc.

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psychological
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Total

>3

3'7 ?o lt.i

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Ill 3.£
33 ill-

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7
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<17' 7,:7,IJ 29.i ltll. It'.£ .7~ NI ~s:, 3,/1,2 lt?,9,

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7 /~ /,tJ ;2, 5 1-'l
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Number

Evaluation

?, 7

Per Cent
Number
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Number

t.2 j/..
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Number

:{7

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20 ~/ f,t) S';'/ 11/.'1
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Evaluation

-

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I-Astronomical

f/1

2•Aircrlft

:u

S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
6-tMUffi~ ~fa.
7-Psyd,olo!ical

IS
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9-0111•

'I

Total

J/-10

J$c./J;yp
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Per Cent
Per Cent
PerCenl
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S- S~uJNPS

II-Balloon

I
I
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/ILL
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fU£
I

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I 1 .J..,7

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Evaluation

0-Balloon

I

l•Astronomical
2-Aimaft
3-Lightf'tlenom.
4-Birds

I
I

I
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I
I
I
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5-Clouds. Oust, etc.

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psychological
8-Unkno"1'1

S.Other
1

Total

£ VAL//"1r//:JIII

'

S- S F/'hYP,; AIVP ./.F.J5
Evaluation

0-Balloon

6-/(?

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5£CC-hVL?.5

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Number
Percent
Number
PerCerit
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Number
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0

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lmmbef

Evaluation

7

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AlttT SrAr£L7

PerCmt

Number
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0-Balloon

2

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0-S,lloon

1-Ashonomical
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Number

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Number
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Number
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1'1! s. ✓ 29.7

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$";<",PrE,udcd

I Evaluation

Number

Percent

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169

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Evlluation

0-Balloon

1-Astronomic.al
2-Aircraft

3-LiptPhenom.
4-Birds

6-lnsuffit.lnfo.
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Total

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f
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£,

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s
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,;:J,/Gtl✓ ,r

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Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCml
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Number
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/

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Evaluation

Number
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Certain DOlrbtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu

0

3 /// (!).0 ti/

2..

t)

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0.0 O.CJ t),0

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0

o.o cJ.O o.,:;

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0

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0.0

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Total

/6

~

A/..-:io"£L.

0

/)

9-0ther

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/)

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Cl

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5-Clouds. Dust, etc.

2,

1'

tW 0.,:) tJ.O

3

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z

0

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0

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0

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0 tJ.O 0.0 ().0
3 ,11.1 0,0 ltJ.7
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/IJ z~ ff./ J5'.1 /OJ?.

I
173

tJ.O O.tJ 0.0

tJ.0 /..J

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Per Cent
Total Certain Doubtful Total

0 o.O t).t/ o.o
zo //18 J'V ft'.?

,tl

tJ

//

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0

0

tJ

CJ

0

tJ

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0.0 ao ,::u,
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0 t}.0 ,:J.Cl P-0
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2-Aimatt

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tJ

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19

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Total Certain Doubtful Total

j'_,:;

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I /Z

ff.:j 1/JtJ.

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5-Clouds, Oust, etc.

f.7

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., ~

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ao 0.0 ao

I

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Number
Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
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0

ff.!

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0

Number

ao (J.0 ao

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Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

M.nv

I Evaluation

Flt/£

rc4Rv,,,,,,

J;,.,ul)/.211

t:).0

u·

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MA,P(!;;'

Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
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rtJmber

Evaluation
0-BallOOII

17

II-Astronomical

I

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/]

3-Light Phenom.

/}

4•8i1ds

/)

5-Clouds. Dus~ etc.

/}

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.

I

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&-Unkno111n

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Total

Cl

z

3

0

0.0 o.O

t).IJ

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I ·z ii'O.C ;eo,o 'f-().C /
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C I ZOtJ o.o 200 I}
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0
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0 P.0 o.o

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0

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I

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Evaluation

I-Astronomical

Per Cent
Number
PerCenl
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I
?

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I

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I

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a,.o o.o ;eo.o

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ao /0.'0 1tJ.r.

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2.

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2

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I
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t,.0

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Number
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Nul!Eer

0 o.e- 0.0 o.o ~
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ao o.C, o.o
o.o o.D o.o
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Evaluation

/

;z

/J

Number
Per Cent
PerCmt
NuCertain Ootrbtful Total Certain lloubtfu I Total Certain lloubllul Total Certain Doobtful Total

/J

0

/7

p'

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i

Cl

11.

IJ.0
5:,:,

Total

I-Astronomical

,,;J

Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
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/)

tJ.O 'Zt:J.t

0.0 aP fl.0
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I ,i?D.0 0,0 ,Z(/,0
0 o.o 0.0 o.o
0 o.o o.0 a.o
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0

Hume,

Ll

0-Balloon

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2,u,

Se.Pre~Ac,e

I

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I
I

lnt..<I

Number

0-Balloon

/)

J, .. -:

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L7AA

• Perc..t
Per Cent
Number
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NumbeJ

/)

0
3

oo 0.0 ao

/7

0

t:)

tJ.0 o.o
75.0 o.c. 7s.D
1.0 ao (J.O

o.o ao

/J

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0

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t7
t?

0
0

ao o.o 0.0
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0.0
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t:J.o ao IJ.0

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0

0

C/D t:J.O 0.0

t)

t?

CJ

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C

t.J

0
0

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0.0

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ao c?.t:J

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0

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17 0
ao tJ.0 00

4

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t.J 0

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0

0
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0
0

0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 ao
0.0 ao tl.tJ
0.Cl Oo c?.O

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0

ao o.t? 0.0
0.0

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0

z

o.o

0

o.o

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tJ

t:J
t:J

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tJ.O o.c

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t?

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t?

ao t'-0 O.tJ /J
zs.o o.o zs.o tJ

9-0ther

j ' 340 &.0 3tJ.tJ
0 0.0 0.0 tJ.O

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2Z.Z

0

tJ.tl

atJ

Total

s

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oo.,1 S'O.tJ /(}().

C.

3

'1 ,,.7 37-3 100.

t.f

0

'I- /00.0 0.0 /(JO• 0

z

z 0.0

174

(J.O

0,0

t:J.(?

/0,,.O /Oo.

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
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I
I
I
I
I
I
I

__,...

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

Enl-

0-Balloao
l·AsllOIIOfflial
2•Aircraft

3-Li&III l'llenom.
4•Bi11ls
S-Clouds, Dus~elc.
6-lnsuffic. tnfD.

........

7-Psydl>lopcal

9-0111,.
Total

Evaluation

0-Ballooo
1-A-ical
2-Airaaft
Hi&llll'llenom.
4-Birds
S-Cloud~ Dus~ etc.
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.

l•Psychological
8-Unknown

9-0lher
Total

St:11. eM c.e
Evaluation

0-Balloon
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2·Aircraft

I

I
I
I
I
1·
I
I

I

3-Lilht Phenom.
4-Birds

~Cloud~ Dus~ etc.
6-tnsuffic.lnfo.
7-PsycOOlogical

8-Unknolll
9-0ther

Total

t

175

I
I

I
I

E"'ualion
0-S.IIDDII
1-Asbonomical

2-Aircraft

I

3-Lia,,tPh810m.
t.Birds

6-lnsuffic. Info.

I

7-Psydlolo!ical
I-Unknown

I

Total

hM,E

M4l/

Evaluation

0-Balloon

/}

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/J 17 /}

/) i:J

17

/J

1-Astronomieal

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5 4U /) /J //ff

/J

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0
:1,

0

CJ

/)

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,?r: /J tJ /J /J
/J/J 171'.J /JO
5 11.5 ~5.tJ ~,?,5
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{J

5
/

2-Aircrah

:I,

0

tJ

I/

? fff.t. 0,tJ 2t. t.
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4-Birds

/J

I}

/J

/J /) rJ /) t?O

/J

0

5-Cloud~ Dus~ et~

/J

tJ

0

0

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.

I?

tJ

tJ o.o /JO l?.0
0 cJ,CJ /J /J tJ. t,

0

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7-Psychological

/}

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0

/,}

tJ

1-Unkno""

:1,

/)

o.o /J./} /JO
~ 1f:6 /? /} 21.t,

I}

/}

n 17. r, I)_/} /J 0

217

0

9-0tller

/

IJ IJ/J 11./J /J/J
/J t?.eJ O.eJ /JO
IJ '/470 /J. /J ao
tJ /J/) 17£} ,2/J
2, 2!rtJ /4n '?,:;p
I tJ.tl /2.5 ,z.5

Total

1

tJ

'1 //?tJ.I. tJ.tJ

IP/1,

5

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$'

Ji< ,P7 G'.'- ""eL>

Nunler
Percent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu

0

3-Liaht Phtmm.

I Evaluation

,4,,G057'

lut.U

Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total
Number

/2,
/}

.f!-

Z1 /. d.? F/9
/ !?./ /J /J 2.1
/2, ,.2// 155 25:5 51.0
, / /JtJ 21 11
/

'7

17

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t,

i?. ✓

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z

5

0

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/J

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0

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0

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1.4" IJtJ L..1/
/JO t'JtJ /J,eJ

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I
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31

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Evaluation

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178

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Enluation

J,,,v

lu11,,£

M~'c/

Number

Per Cent

Number
PerCmt
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0-Balloon

iJ

IJ

Cl

/J b

/2 IJ LIJIJ

l·Astmnomical

/J

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('f,j' :t:tj'

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Total Certain Doubtful Total

,,. ,,

/J

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/J,.IJ /J /)

'7,

/J

9 ! 16:tJ /£/(} 14"<.p /$
5125.'P 17.IJ 2!>.t?
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7

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Total Certain Doubtful Total

I I/A., t?.t? I 1/J"
,:7 t:Ul ao lao

1.tJ
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5.5

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Percent
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Per Cent
Number
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Per Cent

I
I
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Nuriler
Per Cent
Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu

/f..7

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0-Balloon
• 1-Astmnomical

2-Airaafl
3-Liat,t Ptlenom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ etc.
f>lnsuffic.lnfo.

11-Unkno..

9-0llltr
Total

Evaluation
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical

3-Liat,tl'h......
4-Birds

6-lnsuffic.lnfa.
7-PsydlDlogical
II-Unknown

9-0ther

Total

Evaluation

0-Balioon
1-Asbonolllical

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

2-Aircraft

I

3-Liat,ll'h"""'4-Birds

~c, ..~,. 0us1, etc.
6-lnsuffic. ...

I
I
I
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J.PsydlDlogical

8-Unknown

!I-DIiier

I
180

I
I

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I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

E..Ullion
0-Balloan
l•AstlOIIOllliCII

2-Aircraft
Higt,t Phenom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
6-lnsuffl~ lnfD.
l•Psycllolo&ical
1-Unialolll

Mlllllf

Tolll

Evaluation
0-Bllloon
l•Aslnlnomical
2•Airaall
Higl11Ph"10ffl.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
l•Psychological

8-Unkno•

Millier
Total

Evaluation
0-Balloon

l·Astronomical
2-Aircraft
Higl11Pl1aloll.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Du~ et~

6-lnsuffic.lnlo.
l•Psychological
1-Unkno•

~ther

Total

181

I
EvALuAOL2AI

,1119

r,,:ie
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Evaluation

4,/

Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total

11-Ballooo

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I-Astronomical

tJ

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I

2-Airtraft

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0
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t)

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Number
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Number
PerC01I
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0-Balloon

Number
Per Cent
Percent
Nu~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tota

'? /J //1,?I)
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t? lt2t7 tJ.tJ tJ.t?
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I 1!.tJ OCJ 1G.tJ
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/ Z5".tJ c?t? :25. ()

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t:7.({Jet!.r S/6N,..r.'-'z"'Af."'iGS"""--E-=;e...
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a~
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I 5:9 t?.tJ S:9
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PerCmt
Nulltler
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Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total certain Doubllu Total Certain Doubtful Tota

,ao ao

tl

0

~

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tJ LJ(J at? t2L)

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!ill.i 4/.2.. /(),?.

If

i

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/2

{I

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t?t? ,:2/J !/7/]

Evaluatioa

II-Balloon

I-Astronomical

.5' t2t? 1/.'5 ;u
L. /ff, /;:,,. L~.o
!Cl SP.fl 17 _n_,;
I .s.J? t?.LJ ..?.f?

,,.,,.,, '7/J do

/

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tl

tJ

/J /J

/?.t?

,?,?

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a~

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/)

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0

c:l/J ao
4 ;5:p' t:J /J /5.4

tJ

/

1~

tJ.O f. ll

Lt!. 1;.~ t .?OS I/M

I
I

I
I
I

I
I
I
I

I
I
I

2-Aircratt

I
I
I

3-Li&IIIPh010III.
4--Birds

6-lnsuffic.lnfo.

7-Psycholotical
8-Unkno""
9-0ther

Total

I
I
I
I
182

I
I

I
I
I

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

I
I
I
I

Edlaation
0.11111111111

1-Asllooolllical
2-Aircrlft

3-LiptP!Mmo.
4-Birds

6-lnsuffic Info.
7-PsydlDlopcal

8-Unlolo•

Total

Jv,

Evaluation
0-Balloon

AAA<
'E
Jo£-</
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Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cail
Nurlmer
Per Cent
Number
PerC81t
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doublful Tolal Certain Doobtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu Total Certain Doubtful Total

t?

I ~ ! tl.CJ

I}

I

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Ol,?,-7 tJ.v 1011
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IJ.t? 0. Cl

f{.J'

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I

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3-Utht Phenom.

I
I
I
0

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/}

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/)

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6-lnsuffic. Info.

,;

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d 5f.J /Jt? j.J.j

7-Psychological

/}

n

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~

0

9-0the,

/

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Total

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2-Aircraft

/}

I

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5

2.

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I 5.9 l?.t:J 5,9
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